Boring flop GS+Overs

[Heisenb3rg]

hmmm im pretty positive I replied to this post.. Why did it get deleted?

[sharpie]

You're the 3rd person today I've seen say that, I think it's something to do with the forum upgrade? What was the jist of your post?

[Heisenb3rg]

Even if he doesnt fold AK It's an easy 3-bet for a free card if you think the PFR will very unlikely cap with his overpair on the flop and the other guy has common isolating hands (QJ/Tx/9x)... This is regardless of the PFR's PF range. It sounds like this is true in the secnario.

Try to make the impression that you love your hand and you arent afraid of AA or something [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If hes capping the flop a lot, you probabily have to fold.

If hes capping the flop like 30% of the time, and can fold AK on the flop then you still have a profitable 3-bet.

If the guy who raised the PFRs bet is pretty passive, so is unlikely to be "isolating" and believes his hand is good, you have a fold.

My post was longish and showed some numbers as to why this is true.. (agressiveness of the players are crucial to the math).
You want the PFR to be as passive as possible (yet still having AK in his PF range) and the other player to be reasonably agressive, but not too agressive.

Also, if you can get the PFR to fold, id bet the turn and check the river.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

you have a 3-bet pot and a raised flop, the chances of getting capped are substantially higher than you'd think and the chances of a free card worse than you think.

also with your weighted outs assuming you aren't capped you have to make up a little more than 2 big bets of implied odds while avoiding paying off with a worse made hand sometimes if you hit your pair. if it gets capped you will have to make 3 big bets. there is also some chance your gin card (the J) is in one of their hands too and there are some very likely combinations of their two hands that put you in a lot worse shape than you think.

[Heisenb3rg]

I think against most opponents the chances of it getting capped are pretty high...

Sharpie has a read that says other wise.. so it all depends on how accurate he thinks the read is..

[cowboy billy]

I guess it's a matter of assigning probabilities to each outcome and then multiplying those with the expected value of each outcome, which not only is A LOT of work, it's highly subjective and read dependent as well

I'd love for sharpie to have a go at it, since he's the only one who could give both villains a likely range of hands and should have some clue as to what their aggression factor is, bc he's only one who was there

I dunno, I might give it a shot myself, allthough it's going to take a long long time, so I just might not... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]