Attention Passengers! Our autopilot is AWOL......

[Pocket3's]

I'd check with the intention of raising. If UTG bets, and CO, and SB call, that would be perfect. Raise and make everyone put in a second bet. With your good pot equity, this would be ideal. I'd even check raise if it were only 1 player back to you. As a semi-bluff, your opponent may fear you were laying behind an ace. I'd lead the river no matter what falls, your opponent will probably not call if he can't beat a pair of aces. If you complete your flush or str8 it will be well disguised, and you could get a raise if someone makes two pair. If it checks through, it's no big deal with a small pot and a drawing hand. I think you have much more potential for bigger profits with a check raise here.

[Str8Fish]

9 outs to flush, 3 more outs to 5, 2 outs to 2's, ~1.5 outs to 3's = 15.5 outs = ~2:1 to win this hand

If you bet, you give 1BB to win 2BB, which is equal to your chance of winning. In the long run, it doesn't matter what you do here. I say bet it.

EDIT: I'd rather have someone check over my math here...

[OziBattler]

[ QUOTE ]
9 outs to flush, 3 more outs to 5, 2 outs to 2's, ~1.5 outs to 3's = 15.5 outs = ~2:1 to win this hand

If you bet, you give 1BB to win 2BB, which is equal to your chance of winning. In the long run, it doesn't matter what you do here. I say bet it.

EDIT: I'd rather have someone check over my math here...

[/ QUOTE ]

yes. I think 15 outs is about right. So Im about 2:1 to make what SHOULD be the best hand. So ideally if I bet I want at least 2 callers to make this profitable...or I want them to all fold. I'd expect tightie to fold and Mr 90% to call but am unknown about the unknown.

Also with that board its quite possible that they are all playing overs that are under the ace and didnt pair up so I might have the best hand. Also Im going to be calling any bet anyway and I thought that giving a free card here would be bad because practically any card on the river could give villians a better pair and miss my many outs....therefore I bet out.

I think my autopilot has returned [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Andy Ross]

[ QUOTE ]
So ideally if I bet I want at least 2 callers to make this profitable...or I want them to all fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Oz

At the very worst, betting here is a semibluff. At best, it's a bet for value. I'd say the latter is true more often than not. Betting is obvious, and I don't think that it's close.

(on a side note: did you see the rugby scores on Saturday? I've only rarely seen so many depressed Englishmen [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I was a 6'1, smug, drunken, very drunken happy happy man)

[OziBattler]

Hey Andy. Long time no hear. Im no rugby fan I am a keen sportsman/fan...I fully plan on being a [ QUOTE ]
6'1, smug, drunken, very drunken happy happy man

[/ QUOTE ] when we reclaim the Ashes later this year.

/jumps into English flame thrower retardent flame proof suit and stares at Australias somewhat empty trophy cabinet [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]/

edit: oh the hand. I agree its a bet here but hypothetically if I knew 100% that I would only get called by one and only player who has a better hand (eg naked ace) who will donk bet the river if we check a blank, then do I still bet for value? ie do we want to putt in 50% of bets on the betting round when Im a 2:1 dog to draw to a better hand?

[Andy Ross]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Andy. Long time no hear. Im no rugby fan I am a keen sportsman/fan...I fully plan on being a [ QUOTE ]
6'1, smug, drunken, very drunken happy happy man

[/ QUOTE ] when we reclaim the Ashes later this year.

/jumps into English flame thrower retardent flame proof suit and stares at Australias somewhat empty trophy cabinet [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]/

edit: oh the hand. I agree its a bet here but hypothetically if I knew 100% that I would only get called by one and only player who has a better hand (eg naked ace) who will donk bet the river if we check a blank, then do I still bet for value? ie do we want to putt in 50% of bets on the betting round when Im a 2:1 dog to draw to a better hand?



[/ QUOTE ]

I'm Scottish ya bloody convict. Hell, I hope you do take the Ashes back. Every time those prats win a trophy (or... urn), it's all they talk about on the news.

Your hypothetical doesn't make much sense. If we know we're behind and that our bet will always be called, then betting is wrong: the point is that we don't know this, and often it won't be the case. I think we're ahead of the villains' ranges. It doesn't really matter if we're behind in this particular instance. When we're ahead, we're winning the pot lots of times on the turn, when we're behind, we have a boatload of outs to improve.

[OziBattler]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm Scottish ya bloody convict

[/ QUOTE ] lol. yeah I knew that...its not you Im worried about flaming me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
the point is that we don't know this, and often it won't be the case. I think we're ahead of the villains' ranges. It doesn't really matter if we're behind in this particular instance. When we're ahead, we're winning the pot lots of times on the turn, when we're behind, we have a boatload of outs to improve.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes. nh sir!

ps I bet out in the actual hand and they all folded....surprisingly

[Gib]

I would bet, if SB calls I think I would check thru river if you don't hit a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 5, to see if your 2's are good.

btw,
As you have mentioned (in Loc you were looking for a new avater, I tried to source out a picture of Boony adjusting his box, with no luck, the locaction could be "Where's me Beer?"

[OziBattler]

[ QUOTE ]
As you have mentioned (in Loc you were looking for a new avater, I tried to source out a picture of Boony adjusting his box, with no luck, the locaction could be "Where's me Beer?"

[/ QUOTE ]

POST OF THE DAY! Boonie for Prime Minister. Long live Australias favourite Aussie Cricket icon...beer gut and all.

[Gib]

[ QUOTE ]
Boonie for Prime Minister.

[/ QUOTE ]

National Beer Drinking Holidays!

VOTE 1
BOONIE