Donkey?? should i play 22 in this situation

[chuckybrown7]

andrew - now we're talking. that is the analysis i was looking for. it is very close to mathematical correct call.

i appreciate the analysis. so i will spill the beans and tell what happened. it is actually a really interesting story.

so, when the donk decides to call the $7.5k he looked back at his cards. he flashes a Q of clubs by accident. and the dealer even says, "protect your hand to him".

Flop comes 8,4,3 with two clubs.

i put him on QK or JQ or 10Q, due to his limp. so i am in the drivers seat. he is on flush draw and will call the flop for 10k and turn for 20k and i check the river (just in case he has QQ).

i bet 10k.

he goes all in. LOL. ok so the donk is going to put it too me. bet the flush draw all in. and as i know 2 overs. so now i dont get to see the turn, and i am a bit behind. i got what i wanted. he commited his stack. i laugh to myself. if that 3 is a 2 i just played PERFECT POKER. of course it is not.

i then say to the dealer he bet a flush draw. and say he flashed his cards. I saw Qc and Kc. which i didnt. only saw the Q. he calls the floor over, because he did see him flash. floor rules that since it was heads up between me and him and the third player was all in, we would continue play, but if the third play was not all in, he would have made the donk play with his cards open.

in any case, i didnt see the second card, only the Qc. so i was the small dog with the overs and the draw. i predicted a call down, but got raised, so what did i do??

fold. lost 19k on this stupid hand. told my friend and he said i played it all wrong.

that is why i posted here.

so far 9 out of 10 say i should have folded.

Andrew - after doing the math and it being 7 - 1 with your assumptions, u would fold?

any other input appreciated. THANKS

[chuckybrown7]

by the way - donk had QQ. raiser all in had AA. donk hits Q on turn.

yep, this is all true

[Andrew1593]

chucky--

I think that in the BEST case scenario, you're getting implied odds of 7-to-1, which aren't enough. This is a very easy fold for me, one of the biggest reasons being what I mentioned earlier--the preflop betting is not closed. Keep in mind that not only the original limper (the donk), but also the BB is still to act. The fact that you just called MP's all-in seems to me to be a pretty big sign of weakness. As you mentioned, a reraise all-in would've chased you out. If I'm the BB or the original limper, I'm definitely sensing that, I'm going to reraise you all in with any decent holding so that I get to go HU with MP with a lot of dead money in the pot.

Another thing: you say that the call is close to mathematically correct, but not if you plan to make/call a bet on the flop when you miss your set. This counts as reverse implied odds, which would calculate out as follows:

(0.8(0.95*43.5+0.85*30.5)+0.2(0.9*30.5))/(8.5+10)= 3.2-to-1.

That's the important part of implied odds that people often miss out on. When you don't make your hand, you should pretty much always fold.

[chuckybrown7]

andrew - thanks again, that is true about the BB. i was definetly too ambitious.