30 Game Run: Does This Indicate any Long Term Pattern?

[React1oN]

1k's

[Chaos_ult]

One Thousand Dollar Sit and Go's = the obvious answer.

[thephenom]

The people who have responded to this post have two common characteristics,(those recommending I play $1000 SnGs):

-feed their ego by picking on a guy for only playing in $22 SnGs. I guess winning at poker isn't enough to feed your ego. I guess you've always been so good that you never had to play at my level. I don't know if I even count as a poker player to people like you. Poor me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

-uncreative sheep who can only repeat the same responses.

For those of you offering sincere input and advice, I definetely appreciate it.

As far as playing 1000 SnGs I've played about that much at the $11 level, and I've had a very good ROI. I did however know that I'd have a good ROI (over 30%) well below reaching the 1000 game mark. It was more like 200 or 300 games, I knew I could be along term consistent winner. Howevcr, I do respect that long term results are the truest test of your skill.

I will build on my 30 game run, to make it 40, 50 and eventually 100, 200, 500 and see where I stand. It would be nice to set SOME info from my results as 500 is a LONG ways away time wise.

[TheWorm967]

op if you want a serious answer BBV is probably not the best place. try STT or MTT strat.

[thephenom]

Worm967:

Thank you for your input. I was honestly looking for a serious answer, and I thought this was the appropriate forum. I'm not too experienced as a poster and have lots to learn with this also. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Jiganti]

1000's at least. 2000s and 5000s on Party I think. they go off once every month or so.

[HeroInBlack]

[ QUOTE ]
-uncreative sheep who can only repeat the same responses.


[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed, the follower mentality here is just totally out of control. I have carefully considered your situation independently and determined that you should probably play $1000 sit and go's.

You're welcome.

[adanthar]

move sideways to where they respect your questions

[bbartlog]

Obviously it's fairly likely you're a winning player, even on that sample size, if you have 100+% ROI. What is the confidence interval? Well, estimating the variance from your peculiar sample would probably understate the true variance and give you an unrealistically small CI. Easiest is to just play another 70 and reevaluate.

[thephenom]

Bbart: thanks for your response.

I don't know much about confidence intervals, but it would be nice if there was a range of a likely ROI from my recent run. I'll break down my most recent run at the $22 SnGs:

My first 50 games I was -$344 for a -31% ROI. My last 25 I've made $746 for a 135% ROI. My ROI after 75 games is 24%. I think I've recently hit a turning point where I know how to win and what adjustments I need to make at this level. I believe the more recent success is more indicative of the long term for myself, although not quite that high - just a positive number.

Maybe for me to gauge the relevance of this recent run, does anyone care to discuss hot runs they have had over the short term while also relating their long term ROI? Is 130% over 25 to 30 a common hot run for players with your ROIs?