I hate blind battles. Fairly deep stacks.

[KneeCo]

[ QUOTE ]
I went back and put in best case scenario which has us up against only pairs that we beat and straight and flush draws.

Board: Js 5s 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.021% 65.99% 00.03% 43120 18.00 { 9c9d }
Hand 1: 33.979% 33.95% 00.03% 22184 18.00 { 88-44, AsKs, AsQs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, KsQs, KsTs, Ks9s, 86s, 64s, 86o, 64o }

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry but this is all wrong.
We never have to worry about odds when we have better than 50% equity. When you are getting 2:1 you need 33%.
(also this range is totally off, but you knew that)

[crankalicious]

I think you have to call and if villain slow played you after that flop, so be it. That's not good play in my book, offering you the free card. I read it as an attempt to steal your blind and then weakness after the flop indicating he missed. I see his raise as putting you on a draw.

[KneeCo]

1) Effective stacks aren't that deep here, but yea 99 in the BB to a SB open usually plays itself, stacks dictate that it doesn't here.

2) I don't always raise here pf, when I do I make it a little more.

3) Since there's some confusion, let's do the quick math for this from scratch and show our work.

There is 26,367 in the pot after his push.
And it's 11,192 for us to call.

So
11192/(26367+11192) = 0.297984504
We need to be good here 30% of the time for the call to be +EV.

Now the hard part, putting him on a range. Well, all we know is "Villain has been fairly aggro but hasn't overdone it", it's hard with that little read, no buy-in level and no description of our image to put him on a narrow range, but it is a start.

So we ask ourselves?
1) Can he have QQ+ here or is he not raising them that much when folded to his SB/just calling a PF RR with them?
2) Is he (semi) bluffing here with a straight draw or, more likely, FD? It is a blind battle, some people just go nuts and he is "aggro".
3) Is he going broke with any part of that flop even though we RR pf? Again, it's a blind v blind hand, but we did RR pf so can we count on A7 just going crazy here?

These are just some of the questions we should be asking ourselves as we craft a range, and see if we have our required 30% equity to justify a call. And remember, there's nothing wrong with running multiple ranges when unsure to see how you stack up.

Against this range, we should call:
Board: Js 5s 7d
Hand 0: 36.163% 35.05% 01.11% 14922 472.50 { 9c9d }
Hand 1: 63.837% 62.73% 01.11% 26703 472.50 { JJ-77, 55, AJs, AJo, A7o }

But if we remove A7, we should fold:
Board: Js 5s 7d
Hand 0: 25.156% 23.75% 01.40% 7995 472.50 { 9c9d }
Hand 1: 74.844% 73.44% 01.40% 24720 472.50 { JJ-77, 55, AJs, AJo }

If we keep A7 out but add AK hands (with all the red As and Ks dead) as a conservative bluff/FD catcher, it's a call:

Board: Js 5s 7d
Dead: Kd Ad Kh Ah

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.728% 33.25% 01.48% 8725 387.50 { 9c9d }
Hand 1: 65.272% 63.80% 01.48% 16740 387.50 { JJ-77, 55, AKs, AJs, AKo, AJo }


Overall I'm leaning strongly toward a call.

[BlueEcho]

Wow.........I shouldn't be doing this at work. I totally f ed that up sorry guys.

Nice work Knee and thanks for setting me straight.






One more WOW for the road.