JTs river decision - Page 2

blackasthma · #11 08-09-2007, 01:37 AM

What would you bet for at this point? You've already charged them to see the river, and there are no more cards to come. This river card sucks, and you've missed your flush. Just check and hope to win a free showdown.

Oink · #12 08-09-2007, 03:41 AM

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If we were HU, OOP, would you like a c/c more?

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In general yes. Multiway there is going to be less bluffing going on. However since opponents should know this they prolly should call less as well.

But in general in multiway pots I think that b/f and c/f increases in value and c/c and b/c decreases.

That doesnt mean I would c/c this river HU. People check edit: c/c too much in that spot IMHO

StellarWind · #13 08-09-2007, 03:42 AM

Checkcalling saves many bets compared to betfolding.

1. Most players like Button will usually miss betting a better ten, a king, or possibly even two small pairs. With two opponents they will fear the straight. They will also suspect you of checkcalling a hand like KQ because that is what they do when the river is this ugly.

2. Button may check because he has little while SB has the winning hand.

3. When Button does bet SB may raise.

I think all of these saved bets outweigh the times you bet and get paid off.

But an even better play than checkcalling is to check and only call if SB folds. It's very possible that if Button will bet a worse hand often enough to justify a call and so checkfolding could be a mistake. But it would be pretty shocking if you still had a profitable call after SB called in front of you.

Don't fall into the trap of reasoning "SB would call with a worse hand ... therefore SB must have a worse hand." SB is probably 50% to have you beat when he calls in front of you and that destroys your odds.

Robin Foolz · #14 08-09-2007, 10:59 AM

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c/c is terrible in this spot IMO. c/f or b/f prolly the latter

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is not the actual act of check/calling that is terrible here; it's the situation we're in that is terrible, which gives us crap for choices. basically against this field in this spot, if i'm not folding (i've said c/f here may be best against certain villains), i want to see sd as cheaply as possible. i don't want to put any bets, would love it to get checked down, and would love someone to make a play at the pot with a worse hand or bluff.

betting into two donks here with a lone pair on a flush and straight board with middle pair -- what does anyone expect to accomplish with that?

Robin Foolz · #15 08-09-2007, 11:14 AM

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Inducing a bluff or bet by a worse hand from those players? Thats really an awful advice. C/C is the worst option availible here against two passive players.

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lol. you articulated the reasons why my advice is 'terrible' and why the other choices are "better" quite well there sir with your blanket statements. solid.

btw, these guys are terrible and are capable of anything, and because they have high vpip's, their aggro numbers actually suggest they're fairly aggro.

Oink · #16 08-09-2007, 11:15 AM

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betting into two donks here with a lone pair on a flush and straight board with middle pair -- what does anyone expect to accomplish with that?

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I expect being called with worse hands since they are donkeys.

I also think that people are grossly overestimating how often it will be bluff raised.

That said I think Stellarwind makes some good points. I think a c/f if SB calls and a c/c if he doesnt could be the play.

Robin Foolz · #17 08-09-2007, 11:21 AM

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I also think that people are grossly overestimating how often it will be bluff raised.

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from op:

"I can see SB calling with alot of worse pairs here but I can also see button raising this more often than not"

we can speculate the frequency donks will raise this based on our experiences, but we have to go with ops read here since he had been playing with these particular donks. obviously if we think button is trigger happy with a raise in these spots, b/f becomes the worst option by far.

Robin Foolz · #18 08-09-2007, 11:33 AM

nicely put stellar.

the only issue i have is that you''ll be shocked to turn this into a profitable call here if sb also calls.

sb is 72/8/.9/41

i would not be shocked to see him show up with A8, Q8-J8 type of hands here. he's that bad, i assume.

acehole60 · #19 08-09-2007, 01:59 PM

I think this is a fairly easy b/f.

yourface · #20 08-09-2007, 02:02 PM

I think that even bad players can lay down 6x and 7x hands on this board. we don't get called by worse hands enough of the time to bet here for value

stellar has the right idea imo, check and don't overcall