200 NL Bottom set troubles

[Pat Southern]

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i dont think you have to worry about AQ very much.

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You're 200BB deep, counting out AQ because he wouldn't call a PSB on flop is wrong.

[dragonystic]

count it out? all i said was that you don't have to worry about it very much. not that it wasnt possible. just seems unlikely against a solid reg, doesnt it?

[Pat Southern]

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count it out? all i said was that you don't have to worry about it very much. not that it wasnt possible. just seems unlikely against a solid reg, doesnt it?

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200BB deep two overs, a gutshot and position, I'd definately call with AQ in that spot.

BTW I'm not disagreeing with your overall analysis, just saying that i think AQ is just as much a part of his range as other hands.

[Casper05]

A "solid reg" 3bets AQ deep 90% of the time...I think TJ/KQ/KJs/KTs are much more likely.

push river

[Dire]

I really do not like shoving the turn. It's so easy for hero to show up with AQ/TT/JJ/KK in this spot. Villain's going to be able to get away from alot of strong hands that he may even value bet on the river if just called on the turn: TJ/JK/KT stuff. You're really only getting called when beat if you shove the turn. Calling obviously lets a villain with KQ draw, but it's just a sacrifice of playing to maximize value.

I would call the turn for value, planning on paying off / getting paid off on a blank river like this one.

[Shes92]

For me it seems that KJ and KT are not so likely. I dont see solid regulars calling PFRs with those hands too much. I think most likely holdings are AQ, KQ and JT. AK, TT and JJ are possible but I think they are reraising hands in position most of the time for this type of villain. Im calling turn and value betting blank river and hating it when I call if he pushes.

[bluffcakes]

is it standard to raise 33 UTG 6-handed?

[Suigin406]

^^typically raise any pair, especially unopened imo...some people like limping to get odds to call if they're popped back, but eh...

AQ is definitely in his range imo...if he's a solid reg, he would notice the raise from UTG from another solid reg and at least in my experiences, i don't 3bet AQ a lot in those spots (leak?)

also, this deep, i can see a call on the flop with AQ...calling and c/c river is too passive (i don't like being this image dependent with a set tbh)...i push river and expect to get my ass handed to me a decent amount of the time, but still +eV

[Nielsio]

Don't push the turn, he's never calling with worse.

As played, this is probably a call.

[Sciolist]

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is it standard to raise 33 UTG 6-handed?

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Yeh. I've very rarely seen a limp in a 6 max game from anyone I think beats the game. I doubt a fold makes sense unless there're loads of habitual three bettors (i.e, 3 bet or fold types)