Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?

[JJack]

*grunch*

SB is 35.5/16/1.3 over 76 hands
MP3 is 48.2/12.5/4.4 over 56 hands

-if u just cold call u dont have initative at flop and have to fold many times at flop
-when u cold call u dont have enought pot ods to call like need speculative card
-u are at late possition with speculative card so not many chance to call enought villians to give u good pot odds
-after SB call u still dont have good pot odds and u have almost zero value at SD with so loose player with u Q high
-this card likes 1-2 villians if u have initiative OR many villians and u dont have to get initiative (so dont fit to this spot)
- exception (u are at Big Blind and u have to pay only 1BB to see flop)

I flod this hand always with this villian cus his PFR 12.5 is not so crazy and also postflop with 4.4 AF u can suspect he will bet almost all cards at flop and turn and u dont know what outs are clean.

[Brain]

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As far as preflop goes, it says in SSHE to call a raise w/ QJs if there are 3 players (the raiser and two others) in front of you.

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I think it's talking about callers in front of you.

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haha, yeah. that's why I said "in front of you." [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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So how many are there in front of you? Hint: It's zero.

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Bravos - 90 out of 6074 hands or 1.5%...too high? This is something I never looked at, but probably a huge leak if this is too high..thanks for pointing it out to me.

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I have 94 CCs in ~63k hands. Granted, I'm tighter than most (and especially behind a raise), but this is an order of magnitude in difference.

[boss]

With respect to the flop decision the pot is roughly laying the same odds at both decision points, 1:8 (fisrt time) vs 1:7 (second time).

You have 4 outs to the nuts and 1,5 outs for the BDFD --> you need ~47:1,5 --> 8,5:1 to call. Implied odds would you hit are probably favorable. SB is all-in eliminating the risk of a raising war.

--> We call again?

[BigBadBabar]

lol @ 3bet this pf

[MrWookie]

Nick,

In SSH, Ed Miller suggests that optimal cold calling percentage is about 0.5%. That percentage was given for games considerably looser than most games online now. Perhaps 2c/4c is still this loose, but mostly, games this loose are only found live. In games in the current online environment, you should be cold calling considerably less than this, and yet you're doing it about three times as often. This is a significant leak that should be plugged immediately.

[Bulletproof Monk]

fold preflop

and i coldcall quite a bit

[OziBattler]

Nick, based on that cold call %age you call too much.

heres the thing, by just coldcalling in this spot (and spots like it) you set yourself up for some potentially tough spots postflop. My recommendation is that you avoid spots like this until your postflop play improves.

yes, there is an argument for learning whilst the stakes are cheap but there is plenty of time for that later. You can beat alot of micro/nanostakes games by avoiding hands that will put you in toughspots and mercilessly valuebetting

I asked this in that A5s thread and Ill repeat the essence of the question...what would you do with QJo in this spot? what value do you place on being sooted?

ozi

[KitCloudkicker]

i would fold pf. and fold flop.

[KitCloudkicker]

Dear Nick D,

From reading your posts, I'm going to recommend a simply strategic change that should increase your winrate significantly.

It is clear from many of your preflop decisions that you are playing too reactively and not actively enough on your hands. In other words, you preflop philosophy seems to be one of "i want to see a flop b/c you never know what could happen" rather than taking charge of the hand from the get go. In these situations, you should ask yourself if you're willing to 3 bet or 4 bet preflop. if not, in general, you should fold.

There are exceptions, of course, like when there are a lot of people in the hand, or you're in the big blind, etc. But in general you want to avoid cold calling at all costs. Dont play reactively, especially preflop.

[OrigamiSensei]

Yikes on the cold call percentage. I cold-call about once every 400 hands in full ring. Except in rare circumstances you should be 3-betting or folding.