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#11
08-08-2007, 06:51 PM
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Re: Million, broadway on monotone flop
[ QUOTE ]
I almost said to fold the flop but thought I'd get fought a lot over that. He has a flush here almost always. If he doesn't he has KQ or limped AA/KK. [/ QUOTE ] I do this when I see into his soul, the problem is that never happens hell, I'd be happier if you made this post if he minraised, at least that'd be such an obvious 'oh god, donk with the nuts' tell 
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#12
08-09-2007, 03:14 PM
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Re: Million, broadway on monotone flop
[ QUOTE ]
btw i really like the way you played it, not being results oriented. [/ QUOTE ] I prefer the get it in on the flop line OOP, giving a villain with nothing but a diamond a free river is a disaster.
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#13
08-09-2007, 03:55 PM
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Re: Million, broadway on monotone flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I almost said to fold the flop but thought I'd get fought a lot over that. He has a flush here almost always. If he doesn't he has KQ or limped AA/KK. [/ QUOTE ] Gobbo, what exactly about his flop raise gives villan's hand away? the over pot sized raise? Thats some pretty sick soul reading on an unknown. [/ QUOTE ] The simple fact that he raised the flop. This is like one of the biggest betting reads that someone could possibly have, raising the flop with money behind. Like, if anyone ever raises you and they're not committed to the pot they have pretty much the stone nuts in their mind.
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#14
08-09-2007, 04:15 PM
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Re: Million, broadway on monotone flop
Gobbo,
I really disagree with you on this one. While it is odd for an MP player to open limp with AK/KK+ this is the million so it is possible that he misplayed pf and now he flopped a set on a realy scary board and wants to price out draws. He also could easily have KQ/AQ in this spot or he could be semibluffing with the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] along with another broadway card. I think that on this scary board many people are raising the flop and betting the turn to protect their hands (or to buy a free card) and that in this instance a flop raise does not narrow his range even close to only being a flush. In LFTV's shoes I am concerned with getting the money in here and not trying to find a fold
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#15
08-10-2007, 01:16 AM
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Re: Million, broadway on monotone flop
[ QUOTE ]
Gobbo, I really disagree with you on this one. While it is odd for an MP player to open limp with AK/KK+ this is the million so it is possible that he misplayed pf and now he flopped a set on a realy scary board and wants to price out draws. He also could easily have KQ/AQ in this spot or he could be semibluffing with the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] along with another broadway card. I think that on this scary board many people are raising the flop and betting the turn to protect their hands (or to buy a free card) and that in this instance a flop raise does not narrow his range even close to only being a flush. In LFTV's shoes I am concerned with getting the money in here and not trying to find a fold [/ QUOTE ] I would disagree and I think the last comment you said would show that you overvalue some hands in some situations. If he has AA/KK as like 1/5 of his range then this is a fold.
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#16
08-10-2007, 01:34 AM
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Re: Million, broadway on monotone flop
I can't see many hands protecting themself on the flop besides KQ that we beat. I know we have a straight etc but his range is super polarized and if we are behind we are drawing dead. We need to be ahead soo often to call him down here. So fold flop I never do it but it's right.
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#18
08-10-2007, 03:38 AM
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Re: Million, broadway on monotone flop
[ QUOTE ]
In LFTV's shoes I am concerned with getting the money in here and not trying to find a fold [/ QUOTE ] Since you have to somewhat discount the possibility of your opponent having the type of hands that you crush (specifically two-pair [AK/AQ/KQ] and sets [AA-QQ]) and the fact that he is seemingly wanting to play for stacks here, your situation isn’t that good. Against the same hand but with the diamond redraw (J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]), he is freerolling on you and you are putting in over 20x the pot to either chop up the 400, or get scooped ~ 35% of the time. This leaves some hands like A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which you have around 58% equity. I would say on average you have at worst 30% equity, and at the most 45-50%. This is from playing with Stove for a few minutes with this scenario and doing some calcs. I don’t think playing for stacks is the right idea on this flop (or it is definitely close) but when you call the raise and a non-diamond hits, there is probably enough in the pot to crai, since you are even-money against a reasonable range on the turn (again, from doing some calcs). I guess in this spot you have to make your decision on the flop, but there might be some value in calling to see what he does on the turn/see if a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hits.
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#19
08-10-2007, 05:52 AM
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Re: Million, broadway on monotone flop
[ QUOTE ]
Looks fine. The field in the Million is so bad and with the QKA all gone the amount of potential flushes decreases a lot. [/ QUOTE ] yeah i've never seen a donk in the million open limp two random suited cards two off the button before
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#20
08-10-2007, 07:33 AM
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Re: Million, broadway on monotone flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Looks fine. The field in the Million is so bad and with the QKA all gone the amount of potential flushes decreases a lot. [/ QUOTE ] yeah i've never seen a donk in the million open limp two random suited cards two off the button before [/ QUOTE ] I have!
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