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#11
08-05-2007, 09:01 AM
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Re: A new can we fold to 3-bet preflop thread
[ QUOTE ]
Either way, postflop is worth ZERO to both us and our opponent. [/ QUOTE ] No it isnīt because we are always going to lose more money when we are behind than when we are ahead. [ QUOTE ] So one time in three, we get half the preflop pot. That's 3.5SB one third of the time or 1.16SB, making the preflop call clearly +EV even with this feeble postflop strategy. [/ QUOTE ] Mustnīt you deduct your preflop SB call bet from the EV+ in order to compare the two alternatives of either calling or folding preflop? In that case youīll find that you EV is close to 0. 
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#12
08-05-2007, 09:29 AM
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Re: A new can we fold to 3-bet preflop thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Either way, postflop is worth ZERO to both us and our opponent. [/ QUOTE ] No it isnīt because we are always going to lose more money when we are behind than when we are ahead. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with this but i doubt its in the 0.5-1BB range yiu have mentioned. If it is that much I think you c/c too many rivers against this guy. I also think you underestimate how much we will win when when we flop aces up and get loads of action from AQ and AK.
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#13
08-05-2007, 09:47 AM
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Re: A new can we fold to 3-bet preflop thread
STAB STAB STAB
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#14
08-05-2007, 09:48 AM
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Re: A new can we fold to 3-bet preflop thread
[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you don't carry on unless you flop an ace or 5, which will happen about 1 in 3 times so I've heard. If you flop an ace you have slightly over 50% equity. If you flop a 5 depends on the board, but let's say a bit under 50% equity. So very roughly speaking you have somewhere around 50% equity when you hit 1/3 of the time. You're OOP against a dominating range so there are RIO involved, but getting 6 to 1 (or 7 to 1 as Oink put it) these aren't enough to overcome the good price you're getting. [/ QUOTE ] You aren't getting 6:1 or 7:1. You have to account for postflop action. 2/3 of the time you are going to lose 1sb by c/f flop. 1/3 of time you are (presumably) going to c/c, c/c, b/f which gives villain an opportunity to save a bet when behind and to charge the maximum when ahead. If you put flop equity at exactly 50% those 1/3 of times that you hit (and I don't buy that it is really very close to that high) then we can assume you win 1.5BB when ahead and lose 2.5BB when behind. Assume each of you have an equal chance of sucking out on the other. Then your net expectation by calling that 1sb is -2sb. And that's with a full 50% equity when you catch a piece of the flop. I'm not going to count spots where Hero flops a gutshot or something because taking a card off is close to a zero EV decision. Summarizing: 67% fold flop, 1sb loss 16% hit flop and lose, -6sb 16% hit flop and win, +8sb
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#15
08-05-2007, 10:02 AM
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Re: A new can we fold to 3-bet preflop thread
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with this but i doubt its in the 0.5-1BB range yiu have mentioned. If it is that much I think you c/c too many rivers against this guy. [/ QUOTE ] Yes I check/call too many rivers.That may be a leak. But playing WB/WA and bet river with an ace on board also tells your opponent exactly what you have since you never take this line with anything else.And folding river is a disaster.Remember when he raises you on river with Top pair AK he has an easy fold to a 3-bet so he will make money by raising To pair AK.If he takes the same line with a PP he is bound to make money in the long run since your donk often means exactly what it is. [ QUOTE ] I also think you underestimate how much we will win when when we flop aces up and get loads of action from AQ and AK. [/ QUOTE ] Maybe Iīm weak but when I get checkraised on flop or turn by a good player and an ace is on board i donīt give anymore action at all.If he gets reraised preflop and then checkraise me, what range does he have. Maybe I beat AT or AJ but that isnīt enough to go to war. Besides aces up has serious counterfeiting problems and you are going to give his trips serious action with your two pair when that happens. And when you fold out his 88 with your checkraise youīre not to happy with that either. One big problem here is that he has a good mix of PP and A-high hands and has the ability to have many raising hands and at the same time be able to correctly lay down some of them because you only make plays on board that scares his Pocket pairs. You on the other hand are not going to raise many hands and when you do raise it is going to be on boards where he thinks youīre either on a pure bluff or have a good hand that doesnīt give a crap about the ace and/or the two fives that are on the table. So in IMO he has nothing to lose by just calling down if he has a top pair hand
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#16
08-05-2007, 10:55 AM
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Re: A new can we fold to 3-bet preflop thread
Apanage. You are making a lot of assumptions to prove your point. It is a pretty particular player we are dealing with now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
- His range is (too) tight - He will not give action postflop - He will fold 88 to a flop c/r on Axx flop - He will raise the river when we b/f Axxxx (if we do) If he bluff raises the river you should just b/c. Do that a few times and showdown TP and then go back to b/f'ing If he folds 88 when you c/r Axx flop you should NEVER fold preflop. Instead you should c/r just about any flop with high cards. The thing about tight players is that they fold too much postflop and play too predictable. If you exploit that then calling his 3-bet preflop will be +EV. If as you assume they will play their hand super perfect then MAAAAYBE you could consider folding. But as I said, I think you are making huge assumptions about this player. I really think you are way off and to me it seems like you are trying to fit this opponent in a particular way such that folding preflop gets better... You really must be running bad [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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#17
08-05-2007, 11:24 AM
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Re: A new can we fold to 3-bet preflop thread
I realized my math was off a little in my post. The -2sb reflects total expectation over all six major scenarios. It should have been divided out to an EV of -0.33sb to call the 3-bet.
Also it occurs to me that Tommy Angelo describes this scenario in a hand versus Ray Zee where he raise/folded 22 in a BvB hand. I disagree with his reasons in that case because I think his calcs were off, but that he considers it a valid strategy should add a little weight to the discussion.
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#19
08-05-2007, 02:02 PM
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Re: A new can we fold to 3-bet preflop thread
you just typed a 4 page theory on why you should raise, and fold to a tight players 3bet.
a tight player that will never fold KK on an A high flop, or will bet/3bet the flop of A85 with AK and you have A5o raise/folding to a 3bet in limit PF is retarded, and if anyone actually does this, don't post it.
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#20
08-05-2007, 02:35 PM
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Re: A new can we fold to 3-bet preflop thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Either way, postflop is worth ZERO to both us and our opponent. [/ QUOTE ] No it isnīt because we are always going to lose more money when we are behind than when we are ahead. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I was oversimplifying. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] So one time in three, we get half the preflop pot. That's 3.5SB one third of the time or 1.16SB, making the preflop call clearly +EV even with this feeble postflop strategy. [/ QUOTE ] Mustnīt you deduct your preflop SB call bet from the EV+ in order to compare the two alternatives of either calling or folding preflop? In that case youīll find that you EV is close to 0. [/ QUOTE ] 0.16SB, which is the EV I was claiming you might gain, is not close to 0. Guy.
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