Go Ahead, I can take the pain...

[OrigamiSensei]

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That being said, I think that if we don't improve we'd like to get to showdown for exactly one big bet if we can. That big bet can be apportioned as a bet on the turn or a call on the river.

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Checking behind and calling a river bet UI is terrible -- significantly worse than a turn bet. The stats of this player suggest that he's not the type to take a wild stab at the pot on the river.

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Upon further reflection I think you're right about that. If he bets there's just not much of anything that we beat.

[sharpie]

A better hand is never folding before the river on this board when they pick up a wheel draw. Just call the flop and turn and make a decision on the river.