Barry Bonds Home Run Prop - Page 2

TomG · #11 08-04-2007, 04:00 PM

The bet opened at -400 as usual, but moved to -450 after about an hour. I am less enthusiastic at -450 even though it's probably still +EV. I believe Bonds is sitting Sunday, and then I wouldn't touch the bet when Giants are at home against Washington.

TomG · #12 08-04-2007, 08:42 PM

Some Giants fan must have bet the other side as the NO can now be had at -390. It's a very good bet at that price, IMO.

gtrunner57 · #13 08-04-2007, 09:17 PM

Thanks for the heads-up. I added some to this. In my opinion this is very solid value.

brendanb438 · #14 08-04-2007, 10:38 PM

Well looks like he just hit that 755 ball. Hope everyone didn't load up on the no too much today.

I hate Bonds and if Pete Rose isn't allowed in the HOF, neither should this punk.

-Brendan

dudeimstoked · #15 08-05-2007, 07:48 PM

It will be really interesting to see where this line is pushed on monday against washington.

gtrunner57 · #16 08-06-2007, 03:20 PM

I give Barry Bonds a (18.1/19.1)^4.16 = 80.0% chance to NOT hit a HR tonight. Very little value at -390 right now. I would probably wait to see if any SF fans push it lower.

armyof1 · #17 08-06-2007, 03:30 PM

Max Right Field?

Barry Bonds 756th HR Props - Will the HR be to Right, Left or Center Field? If player doesn't break the record all wagers will be settled as No Action. No Parlays. Max $100

Right Field
5/8

Center Field
23/20

Left Field
3/2

gtrunner57 · #18 08-06-2007, 03:33 PM

I would say all of the field bets are bad.

Because of the uncertainty on how they might pay out on right-center or left-center it's hard to judge the probabilities. In addition, it's really hard to hit a HR out of right field in SF. That combined with Barry Bonds career HR rate out of right field is less than 50% doesn't make this look very good anywhere.