QQ agains UTG raise+shove, bubble time 4/180

[Tackleberry]

Bubble-time is meh ... You´ll get 8$? First gets about 200$? You don´t have "plenty of chips" any more. At the final table the average chip-count will be 30k. You have to get more than twice your chips to get REAL money (in relation to the buy-in).

UTG won´t call you without the absolute premium hands so most of the time you´ll end up as a 80% favourite on the flop, adding the nice amount of 11k to your stack - and prepare for the FT.

[Brandonjp13]

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Bubble-time is meh ... You´ll get 8$? First gets about 200$? You don´t have "plenty of chips" any more. At the final table the average chip-count will be 30k. You have to get more than twice your chips to get REAL money (in relation to the buy-in).

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Your probably right on this point. However if I lose 5K(Middle of the road scenario) that put me at 8K and doesn't give me the luxury of being able to blind of many chips. So we're taking a 50< chance I lose some chips and combining that with probably a 30-40 percent chance I can double if i lose chips(Assuming I dont imeddiately get AK or AA or something). On the flip side if I win the 16K I'm right around 30K but that doesn't gurantee me a FT or a top 3 ethier but lets just say we magicly know i'd be 50 percent to top 3 if i did that. Your still asking me to take a <50 chance for a 50 percent chance, when its entirely possiable I could find a better spot in the next 20-25 hands or at least similar(55-45 coinflip)

[swede554]

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I just somehow think it's wrong to take a less then a coinflip(assuming the shover doesnt wake up with a cooler like KK or AA) when I still have plenty of chips.

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Nonono you'll have CO dominated so often here you have to get it in.

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I really don't understand this, I dont see how risking 7K(UTG) +2K(CO) because I might be ahead but yet behind to win the whole hand. Even if CO has 22 I still only profit 2K after losing 7 if I can't beat UTG. so we are -5K if I can't beat CO i'm -9K, so unless I can win both which I'm not a favorite to do how is it a good thing?

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But you're so far ahead of UTG's range. Most of the time he won't call if you iso shove. Let's give UTG a range here. Let's say he'll open w/ 22+, ATo+,A9s+, KJs+, KQo, plus some other random hands since it's bubble time. That's about 15% of his hands. I think this might even be alil tight but whatever. After CO shoves (and I already gave my range for him 99+, AQo+) and then you re-shove UTG will probably only call w/ AKo+, JJ+ or 3% of his hands. So 80% of the time UTG won't even call. I'm not goin to make all the nec. calculations here to show you that this is very a +EV spot but EVEN if UTG does call, your equity is about 35% vs that range which is ok w/ all the money in the pot.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12,057,152,184 games 15.875 secs 759,505,649 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.273% 35.53% 02.74% 4284126816 330542060.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 26.166% 23.68% 02.49% 2855189832 299701904.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 35.561% 34.26% 01.31% 4130240328 157351244.00 { QQ }


Vs. CO range alone you got a 57% equity.

565,060,320 games 0.093 secs 6,075,917,419 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.109% 40.97% 01.14% 231490608 6451800.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 57.891% 56.75% 01.14% 320666112 6451800.00 { QQ }

[Tackleberry]

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[...]Your still asking me to take a <50 chance for a 50 percent chance, when its entirely possiable I could find a better spot in the next 20-25 hands or at least similar(55-45 coinflip)

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Yes - because your approach is oversimplified. I made some math, assuming the following figures/parameters:

A) CO´s range is 77+,AJs-ATs,AJo+.

B1) UTG calls in 15% with QQ+,AK => you win 24003 in 33%, but lose 13753 in 67%
B2) UTG calls in 10% with 99+,AKs,Ako => you win 24003 in 40%, but lose 13753 in 60%
B3) UTG folds 75% => you win 10250 in 64%, but lose 9250 in 36%

This leads to the following calc:

B1) EVx = 0.15 * (0.33 * 24003 + 0.67 * -13753) = - 194
B2) EVy = 0.10 * (0.40 * 24003 + 0.60 * -13753) = + 135
B3) EVz = 0.75 * (0.64 * 10250 + 0.36 * -9250) = + 2423
--- -----------------------------------------------------
Summary: EVx + EVy + EVz = + 2363
=== ==============================

This means, a push has an expected value of nearly 20% of your stack - this is huge!!!!!!!!

=> So, PUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUSH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

By the way: you assume, that you´ll find a "better" spot in the next 20-25 hands? First, in 25 hands (3 orbits) you´ll have lost 3900 chips by blinds and antes if you don´t steal!! That means, you just have about 9k left and a double up has a much lesser effect than in this spot. Anyway - second: here comes a calc with the same stacks, one villain and exactly your parameters (55% (you) vs. 45%, 400 antes, 600 BB, you posted the SB, Villain - not BB - has you covered and pushes, everybody folds):

EV = 0.55 * 14753 + 0.45 * -13753 = +1925!!!!

You see, what I mean?? Your pretended "better spot" is simply worse - yet not taking into account that your stack won´t be the same any more, which makes the absolute number even smaller and the EV-difference bigger. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[TexRef]

This is almost never AA or KK ... and almost always AK or a smaller pair. You have to get your money in here.