Good spot for a Squeeze?

[MJBuddy]

Shoving. You said MP2 was aggressive, and you DO have a read on MP3:

His hand was good enough to call, but not good enough to raise.

Sometimes you run into monsters, but with the equity of 40% of your stack in the pot + FE, if he was smooth calling anything but overpairs, you're set.

Running a loose range, you're actually a slight dog to his if he calls you, but there's still so much dead money relative to your stack and so much fold equity that it's overall +EV as long as both of them don't call you (which would only happen if MP2 had a good hand, called and MP3 had a monster - you would lose your stack here if they both didn't call as well).

[RonFezBuddy]

Ok, here's some math on this problem.

A couple of assumptions:
<ul type="square">[*]Original raiser is aggressive so his raising range is wide[*]His calling range is obviously much narrower[*]MP3 will fold to a shove[/list]
Chips currently in pot: 1125
Chips to be lost: 2650
Chips gained if called and won: 3775
MP2 open raising range: J10s+, QJo+, 22+ (142 combinations)
MP2 calling range: AKo, JJ+ (40 combinations)
MP2 folds 72% of the time to a shove (102/142)
MP2 calls 28% of the time to a shove (40/142)

When MP3 calls the following is my win %

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.217% 33.00% 00.22% 135617040 887916.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 66.783% 66.57% 00.22% 273560088 887916.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

EV of a shove:
72% of the time he folds and we win 1125 (72*1125 = 808.09)
28% of the time he calls and we win 3375 a third of the time and lose 2650 two thirds of the time (28* (.33(3375) + .66 (-2650)) = -140.91)

808.09 + (-140.91) = 667.18

If we guess his range accurately I think the shove is a good one.

[levAA]

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 open raising range: J10s+, QJo+, 22+ (142 combinations)
MP2 calling range: AKo, JJ+ (40 combinations)

[/ QUOTE ]

if you assume this as opening range from mp2 you are choosing a very loose one.

if we take (cause we all love him) harringtons opening range from mp2 its 88+, ATs+, AJo+.
i think you have to do so, cause if you run a squeeze you want to play against tight opponents and not against the loose one you used for your math.
if you apply the gap concept here MP3 will call (if he is also tight) with TT+,AQs+,AKo

if you now run your math again i dont't think you get that EV.

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you have to do so, cause if you run a squeeze you want to play against tight opponents and not against the loose one you used for your math.

[/ QUOTE ]
You have to be careful here when you use tight. In the squeezeplay, you need the original raiser to be able to open with a wide range (loose). You also need to know that the cold call behind by MP3 was also loose since he is applying the Gap Concept to the original raiser. Now your squeeze is putting the original raiser is a bad spot since he likely has a marginal hand, is facing a large raise, and has a player to act behind him. So he would have to loose in his opening raise requirements but tight enough to get out of the hand.

In OP's case, I don't think he has enough chips to give MP2 enough incentive to fold anything but a steal.

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 calling range: AKo, JJ+ (40 combinations)

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this range is way too narrow. MP2 is getting excellent pot odds and OP's shove range is wide given his M.

My calling range here would be something like AT+, 77+, KQ, KJ which would be only slightly narrower than my open-raise range.