TPMK spot OOP in tilt 150

[MINETZ]

you have to atleast call
shoving is much worse than calling
so call and re evaluate the turn.

[ianisakson]

calling to re-evaluate the turn is kinda weak. If i'm calling it's with the sole intention of getting my money in on the turn (assuming it is a relative blank).

IMO this is the street where you have to decide if you're ahead or behind and decide your action from here out. If you feel you're ahead you can either shove now or check-call/check-jam the turn.

[adanthar]

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so basically he needs to be folding around 50% of the time to the push to make it profitable.

I’d probably say push because the % chance hes playing back at you makes it +ev imo.

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people don't play back at you 50% of the time by raising. they might well call light or something, but their raising range just isn't 50% air.

if I decide I'm ahead enough though (that would be because I think he can raise 55 here) *and* that I can bluff him off a better hand if certain cards hit, I call/reeval turn, otherwise fold.

[nath]

shove, people raise/call 88 on these boards all day, i don't think he's flatting JJ-AA preflop, and random tens that beat you seem unlikely. this guy seems to like to make moves at you; make him stick it in drawing to two outs (or don't let him check the turn and draw to six outs twice or something).

[woodguy]

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shove, people raise/call 88 on these boards all day, i don't think he's flatting JJ-AA preflop, and random tens that beat you seem unlikely. this guy seems to like to make moves at you; make him stick it in drawing to two outs (or don't let him check the turn and draw to six outs twice or something).

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, I shove because you will be seen as FOS a reasonable amount of the time and get called by 88 and 55.

If he folds hands I'm ahead of, I'm probably not getting much more value from them except maybe a 1/2 pot on river.

I think his only reasonable holdings we are behind are JTs and JJ maybe.

Regards,
Woodguy

[nath]

yeah, live, if i shoved i would definitely be trying to fold out better hands. on full tilt, if i shove it's for value.

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I think his only reasonable holdings we are behind are JTs and JJ maybe.

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Why are 33, 77, and TT unlikely holdings?

[nath]

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I think his only reasonable holdings we are behind are JTs and JJ maybe.

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Why are 33, 77, and TT unlikely holdings?

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They're reasonable, but they're rarer, simply in terms of sets as a % of total range, and also, people's proclivity to reraise pairs PF (especially TT).

btw, i don't know if something's wrong with the forum software or my browser or what, but i can't reply to any of kramer's posts. it always gives me the "form you have submitted is no longer valid" message.

[Bakes]

if you use quick reply and browse away from the window after you have typed, its not gonna work.

also i can't see reraise from either of those pairs, maybe TT some. I think if we are behind here its to JJ+ actually.

Also do you guys think he just flats the flop with 88? I've seen people raise call it here lol.

[J.A.K.]

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shove, people raise/call 88 on these boards all day, i don't think he's flatting JJ-AA preflop, and random tens that beat you seem unlikely. this guy seems to like to make moves at you ; make him stick it in drawing to two outs (or don't let him check the turn and draw to six outs twice or something).

[/ QUOTE ]

We have only one hand in which villain donked into an active player's(hero) button raise. Bond said he had been a "card rack" so I assume he(Bond) has shown some good hands. This is not convincing enough of a read (IMHO) to overcome concerns of shoving 25 more bb w/TPMK into someone who is never folding a better T after putting over 1/3 of his stack in.