NL100 Is this a +EV c/r bluff?

[mack848]

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There's another question we always need to ask: if it's +EV, is it the most profitable option? I think leading $15-22, or CR to more than just the minimum are both more +EV than your line.

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Good point.

I dislike donking into the preflop 3bettor though. It's still going to cost nealy as much($18-$20), but it is much more likely IMO that KK or QQ will flat call and see whether you follow through on the turn. The flop c/r holds more threat, as it's a stronger line than the donk bet.

Check raising more may have a greater chance of getting KK to fold, but I think it's marginal. It would cross my mind, if I were villain, that the small c/r may be trying to keep me in with KK.

[Raised2Win]

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He would have to fold his KK and QQ a very high percentage of the time.

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This is the crux of it. Who calls a flop c/r in a re-raised pot here without an Ace - would you ?



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Many people call the 12$ out of frustration. Raise flop more or just call and hope he doesn't call u on the river if he checks the turn.

[Cry Me A River]

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21/8 after only 30 hands - I assumed he was TAG [most are in this game!]

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If this is a "once per table week" move why wouldn't you save it to use against someone you KNOW can fold? Particularly weak-tighties?

Why "waste" it on a relative unknown?

Just as general principle, I don't like bluffing unknowns. Particularly if you rarely bluff.

[chopchoi]

If you're gonna do this, raise to $27. It's easy to float for $12 more, since that's pretty much a min-raise. The extra $5 will more than pay for itself in added FE.

If he calls, do you fire on the turn?

[TheProdigy]

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21/8 after only 30 hands - I assumed he was TAG [most are in this game!]

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If this is a "once per table week" move why wouldn't you save it to use against someone you KNOW can fold? Particularly weak-tighties?

Why "waste" it on a relative unknown?

Just as general principle, I don't like bluffing unknowns. Particularly if you rarely bluff.

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QFT. Why no reads? Why would you randomly pull this on someone you are not even sure about? I pull this 10 times per week vs people I know and play against often, but never against unknowns, it is just putting you in a tough spot if he flat calls because now you are lost.

[mack848]

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If this is a "once per table week" move why wouldn't you save it to use against someone you KNOW can fold? Particularly weak-tighties?

Why "waste" it on a relative unknown?

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My read was that this guy was standard. How many 'standard' villains call here with a hand that can't beat KK? I don't think that many NL100 non-fishy types call here much at all. Even fish 'know' they are in bad shape with QQ. I may be wrong, of course, but that's why I played it this way.

[threads13]

Is the preflop call that good against this guy's range OOP?

[shat4brains]

dude you raised preflop, you got 3 bet, he bet when you floped 2nd pair with an ace on board.............FOLD!! Only situation where you can even consider this is if you have played like thousands of hands on someone and strongly think they will fold a decent amount of the time. And i dont like the little tiny raise if your gunna put this play on someone when you bet an amount where its unlikly to work? and i dont think you should ever pull moves like this at 100nl. Also fold preflop because you dont have position and the stacks aren't deep enough. i think this is fps for sure here

[Johnes Benjamin]

It could work but like others said I would definitely wait until I have at least 100 hands! Its not just a matter of knowing how he plays, but having him know how you play.

If I were going to attempt this I would c/r more on the flop. With such limited history, I think A LOT of people will look up what is basically a minraise.