Re: NL10 KK OOP scarecard falls.
There's no reason not to bet the pot on this flop. There are lots of draws and overcards possible on this board. When you bet the pot, there will be 3.75 in the pot and $8.30 left in your stack.
When the blank hits on the turn, I think it is highly likely that we are ahead of villan and we need to protect against draws. For example, if villain has Adxd, he has about 28% equity right now. If he has only xdxd with no pair he has about 20% equity. Basically, I think we need to bet enough so that villain does not have the implied odds to draw given his range. Betting about $4.90 (12.05/4.9=2.46, 2.46 to 1 pot odds would be about 30% pot equity) definitely denies him the proper implied odds he would need given his likely pot equity of 20-28%. Even if the river is the diamond and we stack off, he has still made a theoretical mistake by calling given our read is correct.
Someone correct my math if it is wrong.
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07-29-2007, 10:55 AM
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