Time to get out of STOCK MARKET

[john kane]

I like fishheads posts, please keep posting.

I read in yesterday's Times (best UK serious paper) in the business section how a chief executive of a leading investment bank had sold every penny he had in the stock market as was expecting at best a 10% return (4% better than savings) vs an equally likely 10-20% downward correction over the coming few months.

Yeah, I know there are a ton of people with differing views, but I thought that was pretty interesting.

[Fishhead24]

[ QUOTE ]
I like fishheads posts, please keep posting.

I read in yesterday's Times (best UK serious paper) in the business section how a chief executive of a leading investment bank had sold every penny he had in the stock market as was expecting at best a 10% return (4% better than savings) vs an equally likely 10-20% downward correction over the coming few months.

Yeah, I know there are a ton of people with differing views, but I thought that was pretty interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you sir.........

First off, was a little harsh in saying the stock market will possibly start "crumbling" in my original post. I do however believe these are risky times for the market, especially considering the tremendous gains in the market thus far this year. There is definetly many who are going to decide to take money off the table for the timebeing and adopt a wait and see attitude from here for the remainder of the year.

Having said that,...........oil concerns, housing, and terror threats all have me very leary of the stock market at this time.

Again, coupling these three factors with the semi-good run the market has enjoyed for the past few months and I'm just giving food for thought for everybody that perhaps a safer haven can be found at this time other than the stock market.

[CrushinFelt]

Way to point this out as the market is already down 3% in one week. Had you said this right when the S&P was at 1550 we may give a [censored]. Go sit on one of your corn stalks.


[ QUOTE ]
Some commonsense makes this obvious......

1. OIL
2. HOUSING
3. TERROR THREAT


[/ QUOTE ]

[censored] priceless

[Fishhead24]

This just off the REUTERS wire...............


New home sales sink
Sales of one-family houses fell 6.6% in June, well below economists' expectations.
July 26 2007: 10:28 AM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The pace of new home sales was weaker than expected in June, according to the government's latest look at the battered real estate and home building market.

New homes sold at an annual pace of 834,000 in the month, down 6.6 percent from the revised 893,000 rate in May. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast sales would slow to a 900,000 annual sales rate in June.

[jws43yale]

So Fishhead, other than your endless nonesense about Iowa Farmland, what are your choices for shorts. I find it hard to count you as a credible source when you don't post ideas or advice, just doomsday theories.

And you troll every other thread posting the same things. Please give us some sensible advice and I would be happy to listen to your thoughts backed up with evidence.

[spider]

[ QUOTE ]
The crumbling that could occur in the next 6 months is upon us. The dog days of summer are here.

OIL is soon going to be $100 a barrel.........as it could top $80 today!

The housing market is in a world of hurt, more so than even was thought, but not surprising to this observer.

The next 6 months are going to be a wooly ride on Wall Street..........be careful batinvestors.

[/ QUOTE ]

As terrible as this thread is, I sort of agree and have reduced my stock allocation from around 55% to 40% (i.e. reduced by 15 percentage points). I don't know what "crumbling" means, but if you look at the PE of all the major indices, a drop of 10% (maybe even 20%) would still leave the market at reasonably high valuations. So, I think a 10% to 15% drop in the next 3 months would certainly not be that shocking considering the current market sentiment.

As far as oil, I have no idea if oil will be $100 in the near term but I wouldn't even see that as a big deal. Some of that increase is related to the weak dollar (i.e. increase in oil price is relatively milder in currencies that have strengthed). We've seen in the U.S. that whatever the effect of $3 gas vs $2 gas is pretty minor for the overall economy. $80 to $100 per barrel of oil is only 25%, I don't think it would have much effect overall.

As far as housing... well, it sucks and will continue to suck the more you are exposed to housing. But we still don't know how much it will affect the economy. It definitely is reducing growth but so far it hasn't hurt that much (and somehow it hasn't affected employment which no one seems able to explain).

[Fishhead24]

[ QUOTE ]
So Fishhead, other than your endless nonesense about Iowa Farmland, what are your choices for shorts. I find it hard to count you as a credible source when you don't post ideas or advice, just doomsday theories.

And you troll every other thread posting the same things. Please give us some sensible advice and I would be happy to listen to your thoughts backed up with evidence.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a believer in shorting stocks.........as the stock market is a proven winner over the longterm and it is very hard to predict the downturns(twice as hard as picking winners in my estimation).

Rather than short stocks when I believe the market is headed down, I put my money to work in other areas(although always leaving a small share in the stock market to some degree).

At certain times this could be but not limited to areas such as..........housing, farmland and other various real estate, bonds/savings, precious metals, and collectibles.

Right now, housing is not an option.

For the next 6-12 months(minimum), investing in farmland in Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota is a tremendous oppurtunity in my opinion.

Silver appears to be a good avenue also, as I see this topping $20 in the near future.

OIL is the big one, as this baby is going to $100, perhaps by years end.

[Fishhead24]

To answer your question personally and directly, here is my portfolio currently......

FARMLAND-58%
STOCKS- 10%
SAVINGS- 20%
OIL, SILVER, COLLECTIBLES- 12%

[The once and future king]

If I was someone considering maintaining a position in stocks I would sell now and then move my position forward, not sure how far yet, that is the trick after all.

[mtgordon]

So you don't think you can predict downturns but you can predict when the market is (on average) going to yield less than 5-6% APY?