90 plyr tournament hand analysis

[ahsfl]

Ok I've tried for a couple days to convert this hand and haven't found a way to do it right but I really need some feedback here, little history. We were down to about 50 players here, double stack tourney on FTP. The villan here had been playing very aggressive and shown down some gutsy pushes and pushing hard with medium pockets. When he initially called, I put him on either a medium pocket trying to stack me if he made his trips or 2 suited overs. Considering that read and with that read anywhere from 8-14 outs, was I wrong making the push here?



Seat 1: SemiEsq (3,205)
Seat 2: Veadus (3,805)
Seat 3: r3komstop (2,250), is sitting out
Seat 4: glenmawr70 (4,820)
Seat 5: ahsfl (6,270)
Seat 6: schmorty (7,485)
Seat 7: Starburst55 (8,525)
Seat 8: Crashtestd (4,360)
Seat 9: t-mac0504 (2,010)
r3komstop posts the small blind of 80
glenmawr70 posts the big blind of 160
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ahsfl [Ks Jc]
ahsfl raises to 480
schmorty folds
Starburst55 folds
Crashtestd folds
t-mac0504 folds
SemiEsq folds
Veadus folds
r3komstop folds
glenmawr70 calls 320
*** FLOP *** [9d 8d Th]
glenmawr70 bets 4,340, and is all in
ahsfl calls 4,340
glenmawr70 shows [6s 6h]
ahsfl shows [Ks Jc]
*** TURN *** [9d 8d Th] [6c]
*** RIVER *** [9d 8d Th 6c] [7d]

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

All your outs are not good against his range. If you discount your outs by 20% you have the equivalent of an 11 out hand. Not good enough to call off 2/3 of your chips when you can fold and have an M of about 25.

[ahsfl]

OK, my beginner is showing, what's m?

[Nairb]

M is the total # of rounds you have left in a tourney relative to the blinds and antes vs your chipstack.

Your stack is 2500

Blinds are 150-300 with 50 ante

1 orbit costs you $500 and your stack is 2500 so your M is 5

2500/500=5

[Nairb]

And yes raising 3x bb with KJ offsuit in 1st position will tend to make the beginner show. I suggest you get Harrington on Holdem volumes 1 and 2 to learn about importance of position and starting requirements. It has helped me a ton.

[ahsfl]

Actually that reraise to 3x was relative to the table, everyone was playing extremely tight and I had managed to run some steals from middle and even early position with midlevel raises so I was just taking a stab with a medium strength hand. And think you for the def of m.

[zooot]

[ QUOTE ]
M is the total # of rounds you have left in a tourney relative to the blinds and antes vs your chipstack.

Your stack is 2500

Blinds are 150-300 with 50 ante

1 orbit costs you $500 and your stack is 2500 so your M is 5

2500/500=5

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe M is actually 2.77 here (assuming 9-players).

Stack = 2500
Blinds = 150/300
Antes = 50
Players posting Ante = 9

M = 2500 / [150 + 300 + (50*9)]
M = 2500 / 900
M = 2.77

Don't have HOH handy to quote, but I think a simpler definition is that M = the cost to play one full orbit, or, how many full orbits you can survive based on your current stack.

[Nairb]

I stand corrected. Myt calculation failed to account for 8 of the antes each round.

[Fermion5]

In my experience this kind of all in is either a hand like an overpair protecting against a draw or some type of draw (either straight or flush draw or both). It's almost never a made hand like a straight and rarely a hand like a set. Often I see JJ, 77, AT, two overs with flush draw, etc. I believe it's more often the case that the K or J are not likely outs.