6.50 Turbo Bubble fold?

[mattmcegg]

Besides the fact that I think a call is +ev, i think its also +$ev given the fact that the chip leader has a 7:1 chip advantage on us. I'm assuming you subscribe to the notion that we are playing for 1st only, I think this could be a good spot to accumulate a good amount of chips, take a solid 2nd place position, and win the tournament.

Now, perhaps this is not that good of a spot, you could fold here, do the pushing yourself - accumulating blinds and antes. Clearly, you never want to lose a race or a 80/20 overpair.

Your thoughts?

[mattmcegg]

[ QUOTE ]
Winning the tournament is always nice, but here you need to be concerned with not losing your buy in. You are a substantial dog to win this particular tournament, and trying to win in this or similar situations instead of making sure that you do not get bubbled can turn you from a net STT winner to a net STT loser in a big hurry.

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really? maybe im in unfamiliar waters in STT and applying MTT strategy to these tourneys.

[DevinLake]

my thoughts that are against this guys most likely range, this is a -$EV call. He has to be pushing very wide here, and I just don't think he probably is.

So, to justify a call, you need other factors. Like EV that you'll gain from having a bigger stack. But, you still won't be the chip leader and will still have to tred carefully on the bubble. So, calling and winning doesn't really gain us much, while calling and losing loses everything. There is really no justification for making a -$EV call here.

So, unless his range is wider than I think, it's a fold.

[ColdestCall]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Winning the tournament is always nice, but here you need to be concerned with not losing your buy in. You are a substantial dog to win this particular tournament, and trying to win in this or similar situations instead of making sure that you do not get bubbled can turn you from a net STT winner to a net STT loser in a big hurry.

[/ QUOTE ]

really? maybe im in unfamiliar waters in STT and applying MTT strategy to these tourneys.

[/ QUOTE ]

Matt, there are posters here who can crunch the numbers and explain this a lot better than I can, and I'll admit to being a bit lazy and playing a lot more by "feel" than I probably should. That being said, I would eyeball a situation like this and make an estimate like the following (all numbers following are rough estimates):

assume a payout of $27 for first, $16 for 2nd and $10 for third

Before this hand was dealt, poster was roughly 10% to finish out of the money, 40% for third, 40% for second, and 10% for first, for a total equity of $13.1.

Assuming you make the call here and win, I would change those numbers to 2% out of the money, 8% third, 70% second and 20% first, for a total equity of $17.4.

However, if you call you do not always win. If you win 70% of the time your equity after call is $12.18, and if you win 65% of the time it is $11.3. In either case, it is lower than your original 13.1, and in the latter case disastrously so (a $1.80 change in your equity in a $6.5 tournament is definitely enough to change you from a winner to loser).

Granted, the numbers above are extremely rough estimates, but I do not think they are unreasonable. I would encourage you to plug in varying assumptions regarding intial and post-winning call equity, and probability of winning if you call with TT, and see what you come up with. On balance, I think you will see that calling with TT here reduces your EV, and that the payout structure of a STT relative to an MTT can have important implications for long-term results.