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#11
07-23-2007, 02:18 AM
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What is he possibly calling with that you beat? [/ QUOTE ]My read is that the entirety of AT/A5/AJ/A7/55 calls in nearly 100% of cases and AK/AQ calls a lot of the time and even Ax one pair calls some of the time. [/ QUOTE ] If he really calls that wide, then shoving is a no-brainer. 
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#12
07-23-2007, 02:20 AM
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
[ QUOTE ]
I dont shove this river because I feel that the frequency of him calling a bet of $90 is so much bigger than his frequency for calling a push, that betting less than a push is optimal. Am I missing value? [/ QUOTE ] I'm pretty sure that mid-size bets should almost always be shoves. Assuming he always has a worse hand, and x and y are the calling frequencies for each bet: EV(90) = 90*a EV(134)=134*b The EV is the same when 90a=134b, or when a is 1.5 times b. So, if you think he calls 90 more than 1.5x as often than 134, then you would be better off betting 90. The real question is this: what additional hands do you think call $90, but not $134.
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#14
07-23-2007, 02:24 AM
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The reasoning is that if I don't shove river he checks behind many hands I beat that were calling a shove but bets many hands that beat me and I'm not folding. [/ QUOTE ] What is he possibly calling with that you beat? AJ? Isn't this a perfect spot to induce a bluff (turning his Ax into a bluff)? Also, how awful is a fold? So many draws have gotten there. [/ QUOTE ] What reasonable draws got there? Flush is obvious, but opponents don't often call two streets with a flush draw (of course it's possible, but I think his range is more heavily weighted to made hands). 98 doesn't make sense on this flop. I think a check/fold is terrible. As for inducing bluffs, I think it's likely he has a made hand that he will call some dollar amount with. Most of those hands will probably just check behind, seeing as how the pot is pretty large. I think we would need a read that indicates that he would bluff this river.
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#15
07-23-2007, 02:35 AM
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The reasoning is that if I don't shove river he checks behind many hands I beat that were calling a shove but bets many hands that beat me and I'm not folding. [/ QUOTE ] What is he possibly calling with that you beat? AJ? Isn't this a perfect spot to induce a bluff (turning his Ax into a bluff)? Also, how awful is a fold? So many draws have gotten there. [/ QUOTE ] What reasonable draws got there? Flush is obvious, but opponents don't often call two streets with a flush draw (of course it's possible, but I think his range is more heavily weighted to made hands). 98 doesn't make sense on this flop. I think a check/fold is terrible. As for inducing bluffs, I think it's likely he has a made hand that he will call some dollar amount with. Most of those hands will probably just check behind, seeing as how the pot is pretty large. I think we would need a read that indicates that he would bluff this river. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, I don't disagree. I was just looking for a stronger argument to shove. I usually c/c this river, but I don't necessarily think it's right. I just needed a bit more convincing to find the stones to do this myself.
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#16
07-23-2007, 02:35 AM
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I dont shove this river because I feel that the frequency of him calling a bet of $90 is so much bigger than his frequency for calling a push, that betting less than a push is optimal. Am I missing value? [/ QUOTE ] I'm pretty sure that mid-size bets should almost always be shoves. Assuming he always has a worse hand, and x and y are the calling frequencies for each bet: EV(90) = 90*a EV(134)=134*b The EV is the same when 90a=134b, or when a is 1.5 times b. So, if you think he calls 90 more than 1.5x as often than 134, then you would be better off betting 90. The real question is this: what additional hands do you think call $90, but not $134. [/ QUOTE ] Ok I think I'm convinced this hand may be a shove. But... When you're running a bluff (not neccessarily with this board, but in a similair situation) how often are you river pot size pushing? If you aren't pushing with bluffs don't you become exploitable by capable opponents (not to say this opponent is one). Pretty much anytime a regular makes huge river bets against me (especially on paired boards that 3 flush) it's usually a pretty easy laydown of strong hands. For Example: Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) Hero (SB): $200.00 BB: $242.45 UTG: $44.60 MP: $192.80 CO: $248.45 BTN: $194.00 Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players) 3 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $8.00</font>, Hero calls $7.00, BB calls $6.00 Flop: ($24) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets $10.00</font>, BTN calls $10.00, Hero calls $10.00 Turn: ($54) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets $30.00</font>, BTN calls $30.00, Hero calls $30.00 River: ($144) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets all-in for $194.45</font>, 2 folds Pot Size: $338.45 ($3 Rake) -BTW the button was a big nit so no comments on no PF 3 bet.
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#17
07-23-2007, 02:37 AM
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I don't disagree. I was just looking for a stronger argument to shove. I usually c/c this river, but I don't necessarily think it's right. I just needed a bit more convincing to find the stones to do this myself. [/ QUOTE ] In a lot of situations, c/c could be good, but I think it takes the right opponent and the right board and the right hand. Plus, he's already called pot,pot so it's reasonable to expect he will call a shove or just value-bet a hand that made it. I think I'd c/c a hand like AK.
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#18
07-23-2007, 02:40 AM
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
[ QUOTE ]
Ok I think I'm convinced this hand may be a shove. But... When you're running a bluff (not neccessarily with this board, but in a similair situation) how often are you river pot size pushing? If you aren't pushing with bluffs don't you become exploitable by capable opponents (not to say this opponent is one). [/ QUOTE ] Against reasonable opponents where I think I can bluff, I usually bet close to pot if it makes sense with my line. In this case, a PSB on the river is a shove, so I would shove when bluffing. You bring up a good point, though. I think it's more applicable to overbet shoves.
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#19
07-24-2007, 04:43 AM
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
OK, thanks for your help. He had A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] which explain his calls (not that he might not chase with a naked FD).
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#20
07-24-2007, 05:09 AM
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I dont shove this river because I feel that the frequency of him calling a bet of $90 is so much bigger than his frequency for calling a push, that betting less than a push is optimal. Am I missing value? [/ QUOTE ] I'm pretty sure that mid-size bets should almost always be shoves. Assuming he always has a worse hand, and x and y are the calling frequencies for each bet: EV(90) = 90*a EV(134)=134*b The EV is the same when 90a=134b, or when a is 1.5 times b. So, if you think he calls 90 more than 1.5x as often than 134, then you would be better off betting 90. The real question is this: what additional hands do you think call $90, but not $134. [/ QUOTE ] Ok I think I'm convinced this hand may be a shove. But... When you're running a bluff (not neccessarily with this board, but in a similair situation) how often are you river pot size pushing? If you aren't pushing with bluffs don't you become exploitable by capable opponents (not to say this opponent is one). Pretty much anytime a regular makes huge river bets against me (especially on paired boards that 3 flush) it's usually a pretty easy laydown of strong hands. For Example: Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) Hero (SB): $200.00 BB: $242.45 UTG: $44.60 MP: $192.80 CO: $248.45 BTN: $194.00 Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players) 3 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $8.00</font>, Hero calls $7.00, BB calls $6.00 Flop: ($24) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets $10.00</font>, BTN calls $10.00, Hero calls $10.00 Turn: ($54) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets $30.00</font>, BTN calls $30.00, Hero calls $30.00 River: ($144) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets all-in for $194.45</font>, 2 folds Pot Size: $338.45 ($3 Rake) -BTW the button was a big nit so no comments on no PF 3 bet. [/ QUOTE ] Why is this an obvious fold??? I dont see why villain should give you this odds with trips. It should be more logical to protect his hand in stead of betting 10 into a 24 pot with 2 players behind. Or do you think he is inducing a reraise from a flushdraw ??? About the river bet; do you see this as such a strong move with the flush on board that this could only be a filled boat? What hands do you put villain on: KK,44,K9 Looking forward to your reply.
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