4/180 bubble, river spot

[Sherman]

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Yeah, I'd cbet if I wasn't fairly sure he was looking me up light.

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I don't get it. If we are sure he is looking you up, that seems like more incentive to c-bet to me.

[MJBuddy]

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As-played, I'm folding the river. I simply can't see anything we're beating.

Everything else looks fine. This villain seems the type to call flop bets to "take it away later". Unfortunately, he has the advantage w/ his stack and position, given your holding.

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AK that thinks we're bluffing or maybe a lower PP that thinks we're bluffing. We're beating enough hands that a call really is necessary on the river...but the streets before the river is where the problem lies.

[swede554]

If you're calling the turn raise I think you need to call the river as well but this hand is play ass-backwards imo. Just lead the flop and go from there, makes this hand much easier to play.

[mflip]

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Yeah, I'd cbet if I wasn't fairly sure he was looking me up light.

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I don't get it. If we are sure he is looking you up, that seems like more incentive to c-bet to me.

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Ok, say he is calling with his entire range on the flop so something like 77+,A9+,KT+,QJ. What's our turn line? If any overcard comes and we check he bets whether or not he hit it. Are we calling a turn bet if an over comes?

[Fiksdal]

So we have reason to believe villain likes to flat call IP pre, float flop, and stab turn? In this case, stack sizes are pretty good for a 1/2 pot cbet, and then CRAI turn. High variance but real profitable move against the right villain.

Cbetting flop and then shutting down on the turn here without a set here is really exploitable, and a lot of play happy donks are indeed gonna exploit it with whatever air/overcards they usually have.

I certainly see mflips reasons for not betting flop (villain has been floating flop with something he didnt wanna go all the way with earlier), but I think the line mentioned above is a much better defense against it if this is the case. We can't just start c/c c/c c/c every time we are dealing with a villain like this, cuz in the end that means we are giving them isntead of us control of when the chips go in. This is very bad for us obv.

I usually give turn minraises a lot of credit. Flop minraises not so much, turn minraises I give a lot to. Thing here is, though, that the flop got checked through. Villain might not believe our bet now at all. What in the world did he check behind on the flop that he now likes enough to minraise? 9x? 88? 88 Probably bets the flop once checked to fwiw. Yeah, to be honest, I think he is full of [censored] here. Especially given history. I think this is a random bluff with TJ/diamonds/overcards/air, etc. To be honest I dont think just b/3b AI on the turn is bad at all. Gotta have some guts though.

River could be a last desperation post oak with whiffed draw given hero checked to him, so given massive pot odds, I think we have to call. I don't like it though. It's certainly gonna be 9x/slowplayed TT+ or something else clever taking us to value-town.

Conclusion: Heros biggest mistake is losing control of the hand by being slightly to passive.

[mflip]

I actually think b/3b turn is the best line now. Basically the river decision, in my mind, came down to can he minraise the turn with overs.

Fiksdal, really really good post. Pretty much nailed every point. I don't think results will affect the discussion too much now, I called and he had QJcc.

[BlueEcho]

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I actually think b/3b turn is the best line now. Basically the river decision, in my mind, came down to can he minraise the turn with overs.

Fiksdal, really really good post. Pretty much nailed every point. I don't think results will affect the discussion too much now, I called and he had QJcc.

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Woot! I love it when a plan works out. NH sir.

[SonofDjugashvili]

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I actually think b/3b turn is the best line now. Basically the river decision, in my mind, came down to can he minraise the turn with overs.

Fiksdal, really really good post. Pretty much nailed every point. I don't think results will affect the discussion too much now, I called and he had QJcc.

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Yep, typical of the bluffer who doesn't have the guts to follow through with a proper bet. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[chrispy2005]

as played i think you have to call the river but i think you have to decide on the turn either to shove or fold, i think calling is the weakest option. most of the time he will push the river anyway, and if it comes a scary over you will have no idea where you stand as he is pushing any river. i'd shove turn, but as played def call the river

[advilandy]

I think you accidentally extracted maximum value here, but in the future, you need to cbet such a favorable flop for info or value if he's going to come along with anything. Your objections to this are that he's calling with air anyway and that what happens when we check and he bets on the turn.

As per the former, we WANT him to be calling light. If you are having trouble putting him on a hand, checking is not the way to figure out what he has.
With the turn/river concerns about calling his bets, I agree that it would be problematic to call a turn bet without additional information. This is why you lead turn and see what happens.

If I am villain and feeling frisky I am using a similar line except you will have much more pressure on you (a much bigger raise on the turn).