Deceptively Interesting River Decision

[NoahSD]

This is definitely an interesting spot. I like a check/call a small bet.. fold to a shove. I think if he bets QQ for value, it will be small, and I think his shoving range is pretty much entirely composed of hands we beat.

[AcidKnight]

[ QUOTE ]
omfg i am [censored] confused

he should probably be raising the flop with sets, folding KQ pre to the 3bet (given his numbers, unless he's apt to call 3 bets light), betting AK on the turn, raising AA on the flop, raising/shoving flush draws on the flop, [censored].

bleh, i guess i would put him on exactly QQ or JJ, and tank and shove, to get a frustrated AK to call (that flatted pre and also flatted the flop?!) or QQ to call, tho the latter would bet anyways, and possibly (probably not) fold to a shove, and the former is unlikely to call anywyas.

foooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooock confusion.

i dont' know, i guess this close i would errr on the side of shoving becuase then we dont' have to show it down.

nothing. makes. any. sense.

if we check, i'm pretty sure he's almost never bluffing, but i feel like the absolute value of our hand is too strong to fold with one psb left (this could be incorrect thinking, but i guess in this manner i'm just saying "i have a [censored] straight, i can beat crazy random floats that are 'never' supposed to be floating and or bluffing")...

mass confusion.

[/ QUOTE ]
Very concise. I like it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[gman06]

I would shove, but its really close between that and c/f. c/c here is sooo gross

[Jman28]

For those who want to c/f, do you really think you're beat over 67% of the time he shoves?

I´d check fold here. I dont really see him calling with worse so when we shove and he calls we wont be ahead nearly enough.
I dont think the players at these stakes turn many hands into a bluff that could be good in some way so I dont see that many hands he could bluff us with. If we check and he shoves we are not good often enough to call.

[MagicNinja]

[ QUOTE ]
I´d check fold here. I dont really see him calling with worse so when we shove and he calls we wont be ahead nearly enough.
I dont think the players at these stakes turn many hands into a bluff that could be good in some way so I dont see that many hands he could bluff us with. If we check and he shoves we are not good often enough to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh btw, I don't necessarily check fold; I just think checking is definitely the best play against someone who doesn't suck. Beyond that obviously u will then check call or check fold based on your opponents bluffing frequencies, as the posted i quoted mentioned, most people at these stakes are not turning a medium strength hand into a bluff.

[cowpig]

This definitely depends a lot on Hero's 3betting frequency and Villain's propensity to float. However, here's what I think:

Villain's pf range is probably something like TT+, KQs, AJs+, AQo+

Flop: Villain calls Hero's cbet. This probably isn't AJ/AQ, but could definitely be anything else if Hero 3bets as light as I do. I'll take JJ out of the equation too. Also, I think AA most likely raises the flop. TT might raise the flop but could call.

Turn: Villain checks. He can still have TT, QQ, AK, AQss, AJss, KQs. 99 and TT just hit boats and there's only a PSB left so they would probably slowplay. KQ/AK might bet but also might check, and QQ is definitely checking behind to get to showdown.

River: Js eliminates the possibility of AJss. If we check, our hand is pretty ambiguous. Villain will probably value-bet his entire range minus AK, because all it beats AK, a hand we could easily be holding, and none of it loses to anything we could conceivably have (I think).

So:
QQ/KQs - 4 combos (we win)
TT/AQss/KK - 5 combos (we lose)

So c/c looks like the right play to me.

If he's a nit postflop and won't vbet QQ or KQ here, it's probably a fold.

[cts]

I shove and don't really think twice about it.

With this action vs a standard TAG opponent I don't think he has anything that great, and I'm going to be bluffing this river a ton with 8 high or w/e.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]

With this action vs a standard TAG opponent I don't think he has anything that great, and I'm going to be bluffing this river a ton with 8 high or w/e.


[/ QUOTE ]

Really? He isn't calling wide preflop. I think a bluff here would be pretty bad.

[cts]

Meh I just find that on this board they jam the flop if they have anything good. By the river if he has a monster it's gonna be JJ.