JTs multiway pot 984 flop, other big stack raises allin

[Mr.WeakTight]

you have to call about 30k to win about 97k (double your stack, plus MP1's stack, plus blinds and antes)- you need 3-1 odds for the call. you have 8 outs. (8/46 (.1739) * 8/45 (.1778) )= .3517. that's a little more than a third of the time or slightly better than 3-1. strictly based on pot odds, it's a call.

Plus, you would be knocking someone out, doubling through the big stack, be a tourney chip leader and send a message that you won't be pushed off of your hand.

[the alex]

We're getting 2:1 with 8 nut outs plus the chance that at least a Jack or Ten are good, if not both? I don't see how this is a fold even if you factor in Vilains' sets/redraws/blaaaah.

90k at 400/800 with 29 left is the reward.

LOL tournament life.

[ThePershore]

F it I call.

Odds are just about there (or close) plus the massive advantage of having a monster stack if you hit.

[AC-Cobra]

[ QUOTE ]
We're getting 2:1 with 8 nut outs plus the chance that at least a Jack or Ten are good, if not both? I don't see how this is a fold even if you factor in Vilains' sets/redraws/blaaaah.

90k at 400/800 with 29 left is the reward.

LOL tournament life.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are we really seriously considering that our J and 10 are live here? What range do you put the villians on?

[mastr]

i'm glad to see that the avg 2p2 poster is this dumb, let alone the 2p2 lurker, let alone the avg player. thank you everyone.

[chh]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.659% 24.66% 00.00% 12024 0.00 { JsTs }
Hand 1: 69.066% 69.07% 00.00% 33678 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 2: 06.275% 06.28% 00.00% 3060 0.00 { QQ+ }

so actually we are worst case (assuming noone else has JT obv) exactly a 1-3 dog while only getting about 2.3-1 potodds.

Assuming they both had a set, or 2 pair, our % actually get better:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.685% 29.69% 00.00% 48250 0.00 { JsTs }
Hand 1: 35.157% 28.82% 06.33% 46849 10296.00 { 99-88, 44, 98s, 98o }
Hand 2: 35.157% 28.82% 06.33% 46849 10296.00 { 99-88, 44, 98s, 98o }

But still not enough to call. I dont really see this being a call after doing the maths, at first glance it looked like a clear cut call to me though.
(and remember that we have to remove about 5% just for the fact that our tournament life is at stake!!!)

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
Other comments?



[/ QUOTE ]

Does everybody bet the flop here?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.659% 24.66% 00.00% 12024 0.00 { JsTs }
Hand 1: 69.066% 69.07% 00.00% 33678 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 2: 06.275% 06.28% 00.00% 3060 0.00 { QQ+ }

so actually we are worst case (assuming noone else has JT obv) exactly a 1-3 dog while only getting about 2.3-1 potodds.

Assuming they both had a set, or 2 pair, our % actually get better:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.685% 29.69% 00.00% 48250 0.00 { JsTs }
Hand 1: 35.157% 28.82% 06.33% 46849 10296.00 { 99-88, 44, 98s, 98o }
Hand 2: 35.157% 28.82% 06.33% 46849 10296.00 { 99-88, 44, 98s, 98o }

But still not enough to call. I dont really see this being a call after doing the maths, at first glance it looked like a clear cut call to me though.
(and remember that we have to remove about 5% just for the fact that our tournament life is at stake!!!)

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not saying it is not a call, but the money you are getting no pot odds at all on the money in the side pot. It goes in absolutely even and you are 26% to win against a set. You are 31% against 98s for 2-pair and 32% against an overpair. In fact, the big stack had a set, but I am not sure what else he could have.

You have to look at the math as what your equity in the main pot is, which you have to put in practically nothing more, so it is very positive. Minus the sidepot, which is very negative.

For the main pot, you have to put 2500 in a 44000 pot. In fact, I was 26% to win, but you might assume 28%. So your expected gain is about 9800. For the side pot, you have to put about 27K in for a 54K pot that say you are 30% to win, so you expected loss is 10800. So I would say an expected 1K loss by calling.

I really can't see the big stack has anything but a set or overpair. What else can he have?

Obviously, I lead out pot planning to get the money in. I could also have just pushed or bet smaller with a plan to fold to a reraise by the big stack.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t400/t800
(Ante: t100)
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t15800
Hero: t41130
MP1: t14145
MP2: t53464
CO: t59177
Button: t38282
SB: t16825
BB: t11250

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t2400</font>, MP1 calls t2400 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t4400)</font>, MP2 calls t2400 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t6800)</font>, 3 folds, BB calls t1600 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t9200)</font>.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t10800, 4 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets t8800</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises all-in t11645</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises all-in t50964</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero calls all-in t29830</font>.
Uncalled bets: t12334 returned to MP2.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t72720, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: t45735, Sidepot 1: t53970)


River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t72720, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: t45735, Sidepot 1: t53970)


Results:
Final pot: t72720
<font color="#ffffff">Hero showed Ts Js</font>
<font color="#ffffff">MP1 showed Ad Ah</font>
<font color="#ffffff">MP2 showed 4d 4s</font>

[FGators]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wtf you're almost certainly dead to a 7 or a Q... if we fold we still have like 30k left which is not table scraps... i see no need to gamble with just an OESD for tournament life here

[/ QUOTE ]

Like half of your posts have included the words "tournament life" in them.

That's a huge tell in this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ouch.

And I think its a call.

I guess the bet is reasonable and standard in this spot into two players right?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess the bet is reasonable and standard in this spot into two players right?

[/ QUOTE ]
I was betting into 3 players.