Why is it wrong to assume all draw cards are not live?

[Fonkey123]

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another way to put it is that if you play 9-handed and are drawing to a flush, the standard is to assume there are 9 flush cards left out of 47 remaining. if you did it your way you could guess ~6 flush cards left of of 31 remaining or whatever. they should work out the same.

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Yes, but it's obv so much easier to just assume 9 outs/ 47 cards remaining than convert the ration down to Xouts/ 12 cards, given they'll be the same ratio.

[schwza]

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another way to put it is that if you play 9-handed and are drawing to a flush, the standard is to assume there are 9 flush cards left out of 47 remaining. if you did it your way you could guess ~6 flush cards left of of 31 remaining or whatever. they should work out the same.

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Yes, but it's obv so much easier to just assume 9 outs/ 47 cards remaining than convert the ration down to Xouts/ 12 cards, given they'll be the same ratio.

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oh definitely. i wasn't suggesting you actually try to do the ~6/31 thing at a table.

[NOSUP4U]

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When you have a flush draw, you usually count it as you have 9 outs. I know that this is correct, and this post by no means is trying to claim otherwise!

But I'm curious as to why we can not assume that some flush cards have already been dealt out. As an extreme, what if we were playing a 20 handed table for whatever reason. Do we still count it as 9 outs, even though there's only 12 cards left in the deck after all hole cards have been dealt?


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The issue here is the wording on your question. We aren't concerned with how many cards are left in the deck. The odds of a flush hitting are derived from how many cards are unknown to us, including opponents hole cards. The odds just assume the flush cards are equally distributed over all unknown cards.

Obviously if opponents are holding 6 of your outs, your 'real' likelyhood of hitting your flush is much less. And conversely, if they hold none its much higher. The odds are just an average based on what is known to you.

Mark

[Psy_Mike]

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another way to put it is that if you play 9-handed and are drawing to a flush, the standard is to assume there are 9 flush cards left out of 47 remaining. if you did it your way you could guess ~6 flush cards left of of 31 remaining or whatever. they should work out the same.

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Sorry for bringing this to life again hehe. But why does the 6/31 and 9/47 not match up? By using that method, in a 6 handed game your chance of hitting the flush becomes 1-3.65 and in a 9 handed game 1-4.17.

Where is the error in this?