i think this is really close

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
A solid, tight, but usually passive player limps in MP. He's a winner in the game and does not get out of line, but for example, if someone raises preflop and he has AK and the board is A2KQK, he usually wont put in a raise if bet into on all streets.

... I raise my button ...

... all limpers call ...

Flop comes
3-3-K

checks to me and I bet, UTG calls, solid reg calls.

[/ QUOTE ]Solid reg probably has KKYZ or a three. Since you have a three, he cannot hold a pair of threes. If he has KKYZ, he could be slow playing it. If he has a three, he probably also has an ace, A3YZ. There are some other possibilities for a three, like 2345, 23QQ and 23KK. Maybe some others, but by and large his starting hand will have an ace to go with the three.

After 33K, I’d bet with a three, you’d bet with a three, but maybe a flaw in this guy’s game is he checks the three. Or maybe it’s not a flaw and he fully and correctly expects you to bet behind him, perhaps attempting to steal the pot, if he checks.

At any rate, he checks, you bet and UTG calls. When he calls too, it looks like KKYZ being slow played or A3YZ (similar to your hand with respect to the ace-three ranks). More likely that he has A3YZ than KKYZ, approximately similar to A3 being more likely than KK in Texas hold ‘em.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn ... checks to me again, I bet, UTG folds, solid reg calls.

[/ QUOTE ]He could be waiting one more round to pull the trigger, trusting you to bet all the way. But he’s more likely to simply be on a draw, hoping to make a full house.

[ QUOTE ]
River
9s
solid reg checks.

[/ QUOTE ]Not likely the nine helped him. I’d guess he missed his draw, but has trip threes probably with an ace kicker.

However, there are some hands containing a three but no ace kicker with which he could see the flop and then he could be playing any of them after this flop. He might pay off with them, or simply call your 4th round bet just to gain insight as to how you are playing. On that basis I’d recommend taking the risk he has a full house.

In addition, there is a possibility he will fold a three with an ace kicker and you will scoop instead of splitting.

Bet, by all means.

[ QUOTE ]
At this point he usually has the case 3...

[/ QUOTE ]That would be my guess.
[ QUOTE ]
... or A245 or similar, because he was getting the correct price to peel one on the flop for a backdoor low, and there is still a chance he has a hand like A2Kx, in which case he will likely begrudgingly call a river bet b/c of the size of the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]I don’t think he would have been getting favorable odds to draw for a backdoor low. However, he might not know that (you didn’t – or maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think so) and he also might continue and then pay you off with A2KX.

[ QUOTE ]
The action suggests that he will overwhelmingly only call a river bet with the case 3 or AK, and he's much more likely to have the case 3.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes.

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you broaden the kind of opponent in this hand, do you still value bet this river?

[/ QUOTE ]Yes.

[ QUOTE ]
an observant opponent will know I have trips almost always when I bet all three streets.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes. But give him a chance to make a mistake anyhow. Bet.

[ QUOTE ]
For discussions sake, do you bet the river if it comes say, the Q ???

[/ QUOTE ]That one is tougher. He’s more likely to have a queen with his three than a nine.

Buzz

[I dunno]

[ QUOTE ]
For discussions sake, do you bet the river if it comes say, the Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ???

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean is this the point where it goes from being a value bet to a bluff, as that completes a flush and is not likely to have given an A3 hand a boat?

[Buzz]

Flop 33K, if Button has A245,
<ul type="square">21/45 he folds after turn is 3,9,T,J,Q,K (22 cards) and loses 1 bet

12/45*23/44 he calls after turn is A,2,4,5, misses on river, and loses 3 bets
12/45*21/44 he makes nut low

12/45*24/44 he calls after turn is 6,7,8, misses on river, and loses 3 bets
12/45*20/44 he makes nut low[/list]
Combining terms, Button:
<ul type="square"><font color="red">loses 1 bet 21/45
loses 3 bets 12/45*47/44</font>
wins or ties for low 12/45*41/44

<font color="red">loses 1 bet 0.467 fraction of the time
loses 3 bets 0.285 fraction of the time</font>
wins or ties for low 0.248 fraction of the time

<font color="red">-1*0.467-3*0.285 =
-0.467-0.855 = -1.322 is sub-total of expected losses.</font>

Sub-total of expected gains has to equal at least that much.

1.322/.258 = 5.124[/list]
Button would have to make more than 5 small bets when he wins or ties for low to make up for expected losses. And he doesn’t. Instead, if the play goes as it did, with UTG folding on the 3rd betting round, Button mostly gets his own money back when he wins for low. He should probably expect to average winning in the neighborhood of 3 small bets when he wins and that simply doesn't make up for his losses.

Button does all right if Hero and UTG are both fish who will stubbornly call regardless of the turn and river cards. In that case, with no more raises, and if he doesn’t get quartered for low, Button would win about 5 small bets, roughly making up for the money lost when he misses.

In a looser game, where more dead money went into the pot on the 1st and 2nd betting rounds, and where more money was expected on the 3rd and 4th betting rounds, Button could see another card with A,2,4,5 after a flop of 3,3,K. but the way things are, Button does not have favorable odds to draw, not even to “take one off” when drawing for a back-door low.

However, Button can be a solid player and still may not know that.

Buzz

[howzit]

real quick, what odds do i need to peel a naked back door low. both w/counterfeit protection and without.

[cgkid]

If the river is the Qc I think a bet has approximately the same value. Obviously the Qc is more likely to have helped his hand. However when it doesn't help his hand, which will be a large percentage of the time, it will be much harder for him to call with the A3 hands we're chopping with so we scoop more often.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
real quick, what odds do i need to peel a naked back door low. both w/counterfeit protection and without.

[/ QUOTE ] Howzit – You need better pot odds for your fraction of the pot than odds against making a winning low.

I don't think that's the answer you wanted, or even very helpful.

Otherwise there is no “real quick” answer except to advise you to either bluff or fold when all you have is a back-door low draw.

With double counterfeit protection, as in the hand Button has, from Button’s own perspective (in other words in terms of the cards Button can actually see), Button will actually make low, as calculated in the post to which you responded, about one time out of four. Thus the odds against Hero making low (for half the pot) are about three to one.

It’s pretty close to that (three to one against) when Button only has single counterfeit protection.

Without any counterfeit protection, as with a bare ace-deuce after a flop with one low card, Button will actually make low about one time out of six (not quite that often). Thus the odds against Hero making low (for half the pot) are about five to one.

In either case, roughly half the time, the turn will be a card such that Hero will pay no more.

With double or single counterfeit protection, the other roughly half the time, Hero will go on to make low about half the time and miss the other half.

With no counterfeit protection, the other roughly half the time, Hero will go on to make low roughly one time out of four and miss roughly three times out of four.

With A2KK/3QQ, for example, Hero makes low 160/990 (or 0.162), missing on the turn 25/45 (or 0.556), for one small bet and missing on the river 20/45*28/44 (or 0.283) for one small bet plus one big bet (equivalent to a total of three small bets). Thus very crudely, Hero roughly wins one time out of six, loses one bet three times out of six and loses three bets two times out of six.

Thus Hero doesn’t simply lose one bet whenever he loses. Instead, assuming no raises, Hero loses an average of about 1.4 bets when he loses.

With a bare ace-deuce, since Hero loses five times for every one time he wins, he has to win an average of seven small bets when he wins. (Because 1.4*5=7).

In order for Hero's half of the pot to contain seven small bets for him to win at the showdown, the whole pot would have to have fourteen small bets, aside from what Hero and the winner for high contributed henceforth to the pot. And in order for fourteen small bets to be in the pot, Hero should strongly suspect he's up against another A2YZ, thus negating the whole deal (unless all your opponents play perfectly). In a full game, roughly two times out of every five when Hero is are dealt A2YZ, at least one opponent also is dealt A2YZ.

It’s not absolutely impossible to be getting favorable odds to draw for the low half of the pot only after a flop with only one low card. And usually Hero's hand has some high possibilities as well.

But very good advice would be for you not to pay to draw for low only when there is only one low card on the flop. That’s stone tablet advice if you have no counterfeit protection. Even with double counterfeit protection, you’re well advised to not draw purely or almost purely for low.

When the flop is K33, a “solid” hand contains at least one three or a pair of kings. That is not at all to suggest that when only two others have seen the flop and neither of them bets, you should not bet without a “solid” hand. One of your two opponents will only have a “solid” hand for this flop about three times out of every eight. If your opponents know the game and both trust you to be a solid player, you should be able to get away with stealing the pot the other five times out of eight, or at least half the time.

But if you steal too often, astute opponents will get wise.

Buzz

[Burdzthewurd]

Tx,

Results please?

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Tx,

Results please?

[/ QUOTE ]

I checked, we chopped.

[Toro de Rojo]

TX - Hopefully you weren't playing at The Maverick last night. That was some bad [censored].

[J_V]

If this bet is close, then you aren't bluffing enough. I'm not sure what you mean by two-way hand, but if you mean it might get worse hands to fold or better ones to call, I really hate it.

Two way bets don't work in limit poker because there is no polarization of hand values when bet size is so small.