Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle

[djk123]

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tough decison. fwiw i would just shove preflop.

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Is that unexploitably +EV? We don't have big antes, and any kind of thinking villain is going to know my range is wide and does not include top hands, since my stack is perfect for a raise to induce a shove with a big hand. He has a big enough stack to call comfortably. Unless this is mathematically unexploitable, I think shoving is bad.

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I'm pretty sure it is. I did a quick calc giving villain a calling range of 22+,A2+,K9s+,KTo+ and it was ~+10k cEV

[uclabruinz]

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To further explain myself,

In order to call this, you need to have a fairly complicated/advanced read on this guy. The main reason being, there are TONS of hands he can have that are valuebetting, honestly like every combination of hands that beat you. At the same time, there aren't very many hands he can have that are bluffing. Most ppl don't float and go crazy at 14bbs effective stacks.

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Tons of hands that are value betting? Like what? What hands quickly call the flop, bet small on the turn, and then instashove the river? IMO, this is always either a flush or air.

[Cornell Fiji]

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Villain never has an A.

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I don't think A3/A4/A6/A8 are out of the question given his pf check or subsequent actions.

[shaundeeb]

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I like open shoving river as a bluff then c/c

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He almost never has a better hand that is folding.

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I dunno people are checking A3o and such in these spots with these stacks and rightfully so.

[djk123]

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I like open shoving river as a bluff then c/c

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He almost never has a better hand that is folding.

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I dunno people are checking A3o and such in these spots with these stacks and rightfully so.

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I agree that certain people would check Ax here, but I wouldn't say rightfully so.

[shaundeeb]

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To further explain myself,

In order to call this, you need to have a fairly complicated/advanced read on this guy. The main reason being, there are TONS of hands he can have that are valuebetting, honestly like every combination of hands that beat you. At the same time, there aren't very many hands he can have that are bluffing. Most ppl don't float and go crazy at 14bbs effective stacks.

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Tons of hands that are value betting? Like what? What hands quickly call the flop, bet small on the turn, and then instashove the river? IMO, this is always either a flush or air.

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could be 34 or K5 etc there are 2pair hands that he can and will be valuebetting I don't think bot 2 makes the same river bet but the other 2pairs do too.

[Ansky]

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To further explain myself,

In order to call this, you need to have a fairly complicated/advanced read on this guy. The main reason being, there are TONS of hands he can have that are valuebetting, honestly like every combination of hands that beat you. At the same time, there aren't very many hands he can have that are bluffing. Most ppl don't float and go crazy at 14bbs effective stacks.

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Tons of hands that are value betting? Like what? What hands quickly call the flop, bet small on the turn, and then instashove the river? IMO, this is always either a flush or air.

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2 pair (like any 2 pair).

Anyway, you call here w/ QJ high? He isn't shoving any hands in between QJ high and kings is he?

Also, what "air" can he have really here?

[shaundeeb]

also ucla if you are soo sure Ax is not in his range why aren't you shoving the turn?

[WarDekar]

I'm pretty sure you can shove this unexploitably PF (curtains can verify this?) but I believe you can shove any King at 10BB without antes, and with the antes here you're about there

Also shoving river is really bad IMO

[uclabruinz]

All,

Villains in this situation very, very rarely instacheck preflop with an ace and very, very rarely instacall the flop and bet small on the turn with that ace, or with any hand like two pair or whatever.