Flopped set, ugly turn.....help!

[Tiki]

Thanks for the replies so far. (bump)

[Fiksdal]

Tiki

I'll explain my reasoning for check/evaluate.

Villain might only have TP, but the draws that just hit were also a decent part of his range. If we check here, villan will usually check behind with his TP hands, and we can make a river value bet that villain will call wide given that the turn checked through, but only raise with hands that beat us, meaning we can easily fold if raised on river.

If villain bets the turn I usually put him on a straight/flush and call, looking to win a very big pot if the board pairs on the river. Possibly I overbet shove river in this scenario.

Sometimes we will get outplayed with this line (like if villain stabs turn to protect top pair or bluffs with a pure airfloat. Yet, I think the line described above is optimal overall. I have to say this is a tough spot indeed though.

[Tiki]

[ QUOTE ]
Tiki

I'll explain my reasoning for check/evaluate.

Villain might only have TP, but the draws that just hit were also a decent part of his range. If we check here, villan will usually check behind with his TP hands, and we can make a river value bet that villain will call wide given that the turn checked through, but only raise with hands that beat us, meaning we can easily fold if raised on river.

If villain bets the turn I usually put him on a straight/flush and call, looking to win a very big pot if the board pairs on the river. Possibly I overbet shove river in this scenario.

Sometimes we will get outplayed with this line (like if villain stabs turn to protect top pair or bluffs with a pure airfloat. Yet, I think the line described above is optimal overall. I have to say this is a tough spot indeed though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Fiksdal. This makes sense to me.

[Unknown Soldier]

problem with checking to get value from pair/2pr hands later is that there is a million action killer cards

[LastLife]

I like a bet out here. He called you in position and could have a wide range of hands. J9 and flush draws are in the range, but just a small percent.

[Splossy]

This is something I've been think about recently from an implied odds point of view.

When the villain calls 3.5 he clearly doesn't have the expressed odds to do so. He needs to win 14+ to get 4:1 and is only getting 8.25 (2.4:1). So he needs to make up 5.75, which is a reasonable bet for hero to make, if betting the turn. So if you bet everytime are you not justifying his call without him even having to rely on a loose call from you? Furthermore you are likely to call a smallish value bet on the river too?

What do you guys think about that? Have I got the sums wrong?

[Fiksdal]

Splossy

If villains range purely consists of flush draws, yes.

Villains range also has Tx and pps though, so thats why it's not completely true.

Also, we have redraw, 10 outs, even if villain hits a flush on the turn. And villain has massive reverse implied odds if somehow the board pairs when he hits his draw.

[Sebs]

c/c turn, open shove river if the board pairs

[bluffbetter]

Just to state the somewhat obvious, a good aggressive player here may be calling with 56s if he has a read that hero raises fairly wide but gives up easily without a great hand. Noone should have J9 here, but fish will sometimes obviously. So that leaves decent made hands,flushes and also the possibility villain called with the intention of bluffing later streets. I don't think they have the flush too often here and I bet the turn, but small enough to get called by weaker hands.