Shutting Myself Down (theory post)

[drbk2]

What's up buddy,

I love these hands you posted. I think these are perfect examples of situations where if you're running well you seem to never go wrong and if you're running bad you always make the "wrong" decision (the quotes are there because all of us turn more results oriented when we're running bad). I've been in 6 max online mode lately so these spots come up a lot for me. I think a very important factor which you did not mention is how your opponents view YOU. When I'm playing hands such as this how my opponents view me may be more important than how I view them. Another important thing to mention is if these hands are online, shorthanded, etc. I will assume that these are shorthanded online games.

Hand 1: Preflop fine flop great. I think turn is a bet call, not because the pot is big and you have pot odds, but because you will be facing a lot of semi bluffs here especially if you have a tight image. People semibluff me all the time on a turn like this and I think I established myself pretty well online as being one who never folds. Check call any non ace river.

Hand 2: Excellent 3 bet preflop especially if ep limper is weak. This one I would bet call the turn, check fold the river. If you had not 3 bet preflop like I saw at least one other person suggest, the hand would be much more difficult to play. If the ep limper is weak, the villain can have a wide variety of hands. A bet on the turn should narrow this range down in your mind quite a bit.

Hand 3: I would raise preflop, but if this is a full live game then I guess limping is ok sometimes too. Bet the turn and see a showdown. This could be JT very easily.

[pohuist]

Great post, professor, these situations do come up all the time.

Hand 1 is p/f fold. However, as played, I don't like a bet here. Its unlikley that you're good. Change a J to a low card and the bet is in order. Your club draw is of dubious value. True, you have a 2-way hand, but in this partucular situation it is possible that neither your hand, nor your draw is good. (baring 2 pair or trips).

Hand 2 is a bet. This Ace is just as scary to your opponent as it is to you. A 6 should not be part of his range, so you should have 6 clean outs if raised.

Hand 3 is a bet. You did not indicate the suit of the turn 9, so I'll assume its a diamond and you are not worried about semibluff raises with a pair and flush draw. The 9 didn't seem to help anybody, unless villain is there with a gutshot which is unlikley, so its quite possible you are still best. Bet it.

[vmacosta]

All,
I really don't like folding in hand 2 at all. I think if people are considering folding the river for a single bet then they should go into a shell right away and c/c the turn. The reason is that its a button opener so he will have stuff like Q6 here and whatever and those hands are decent candidates for a bluff.

[cgrohman]

Hand 1: Bet/fold
Hand 2: Bet/call. too mcuh fold equity
Hand 3: Bet/call

[ssmallz]

Hand 1: check call the turn, check fold, check call, or c/r the river depending on the the card. My thinking: Villain is a tag and certainly could have peeled the flop w/AcX, better 8s, not many Jacks but some, and some K's he planned on raising the turn or just letting you bluff. Either way I want to see the river and I'm faily sure he'll bet when checked to. You have enough live draws to want to see the river so thats what I'm gonna do

Hand 2: cc the turn. My thinking: this ace the worst card for your hand. If you're opponent peeled the flop w/overcards he will be convinced to correctly fold. If he peeled w/an ace, he will likely raise or at least call. OTOH if we check, he might bet at this w/tons of hands hoping we will just fold. If you're up against an aggro player who likes to bluff raise here, a bet to induce a bluff might be good but I don't like that as its expensive and hard to find an opponent who fits this description, especially online when reads are tougher to get

Hand 3: I check behind and call a river bet UI My thinking: Again this is the type of situation where I don't want to get pushed off my hand and if I'm ahead, my opponent likely doesn't have many outs. OTOH, I may be able to induce a bluff on the river or couterfit 2 pair that woulda c/r'ed me on the turn. I don't think we fold any hands that are better than ours w/a turn bet and a lot hands that will call our value bet will fold b/c the board is so scary. OTOH these hands might look us up on the river if we check the turn and they check again on the river.

[Hass]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Howard:
Hand 1: I think most people here will defend 87o to a CO raise, but fair enough, its probably close so you have a point. However, either way you are dodging the meat of the hand. For your sake, let's say you defended T9o and flopped A9x/Q instead.(I think this situation is very different from my example though)

Hand 2: We do have outs, but if we knew we were going to be raised, it would be a mistake to bet/call. Obviously, that is not the case because villain will fold or call here some of the time. I'm fine with betting if you think its still prudent, but I think it's worth considering how often you are raised here.

[/ QUOTE ]

(I'm avoiding the other scenario because my stomach hurts.)

Re hand 1:

You c/r flop, villain just calls. My default setting since I only do this is if I've got something or think I can manipulate my opponent (which is why I'd avoid this type villain in the first place w/ this hand) is to bet pretty much any turn and especially this one. What else are you going to do that isn't lame? You've got your pair and your flush draw. Check/calling is reasonable, I guess, but are you going to c/c river UI? And suppose he checks behind on the turn? That's really horrible. I prefer to just bet and take it from there. But I'll say it again: Fold it pf.

Hand 2:

If you don't bet turn you are inviting villain to take this pot away from you regardless if he has the Ace or not. Frankly, he may raise you w/ air. You've got to know your man a bit to really know how to proceed but (generally speaking) you've represented great strength from the start. How can you stop now? But, that's just my approach and I'm sure others will disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree except for folding PF. I only fold this PF against you. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[emerson]

[ QUOTE ]
Poker used to be easy. Call when you have pot odds. Bet when you are ahead. Get to showdown in big pots with marginal hands. I learned these lessons and learned them well. Then, life got hard. Competing interests came into play and I had to learn to make distinctions if I wanted to stay a winner as the limits got bigger and the players got better.

More and more, I have found myself in a specfic situation where these distinctions are vital:

1. I have a marginal holding as well as a draw of varying strength OOP on the turn.
2. We are HU and I had the last action on the flop.
3. Villain is an aggressive player and there is a reasonable chance I will get raised by a chunk of his range. However, I am likely to still have some FE.
4. I have pot odds to see a river so bet/folding is not a good option. I must either bet/call or check/call.

I've posted 3 hands. Talk to me about them. I'm not so much interested in what you're doing but why you are doing it. If you are taking different lines for each of these, what are the distinctions that you find important? Talk to me about villain's range, plans for a blank river, sacraficing value for drawing cheaply, etc.

In all of these situations, villain is an aggressive, thinking player(winner at this limit) with a reasonable preflop range who is aware that you are the same.

Hand 1:
Villain raises in the CO, Hero calls 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the BB.
Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero check raises, Villain calls.
Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero...

Hand 2:
EP limps, Villain raises on the Button, Hero 3-bets 88 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the SB, BB folds, EP calls, Villain calls.
Flop: 975r
Hero bets, EP folds, Villain calls.
Turn: A
Hero...

Hand 3:
EP limps, Hero limps QJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], MP limps, Villain limps, Blinds call.
Flop: J86 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets, MP calls, Villain raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, MP folds, Villain calls.
Turn: 9
Hero...


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Hand 1: Bet the turn. If he doesn't have a pair or a club he has to fold. Check the river regardless of what comes. He can't call you with anything that doesn't beat you. Try to induce a bluff.

Hand 2: check turn. Tend to check hands that have outs and bet hands that if already beaten have no outs. You have a pair and a straight draw. Check turn and plan to check call river unless it is a K or Q.

Hand 3: Bet. You have top pair and a straight draw. Don't give overs a free shot.

[elindauer]

Wow Professor.

You ask really good questions.

-eric

[rafiki]

Basically almost no conclusions came of this. Which is why I think live reads really have so much to do with the game.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically almost no conclusions came of this. Which is why I think live reads really have so much to do with the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

hand 2 is an incredibly easy bet/call, fold riv UI.