Bellagio Cup ME hand AA vs John Hennigan

[EverettKings]

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so you put him on air on the river?

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I read river bet as trying to induce a shove

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correct...

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To me your line looks like AA exactly, which I doubt he'd try to get you to fold for 12k more. If you want him to bet air I think a check is in order.

[_JoeJimJoe]

I've been working a 15k stack all level only opening except once I shoved over a co raise out of bb and showed qq. The rest I took down preflop except one I folded to a shorty push and a monster stack smoothcall and the other I check folded on a four way flop. Hennigan has been active but not crazy

[adanthar]

hmm, I've just read his bio and I have to revise what I thought. originally, bet/fold > check/call > bet/call. but Hennigan is really good, and definitely knows your range well enough here (since it's obvious) that it sets up an annoyingly apparent bluff possibility. tight relative unknowns do fold aces enough live that he could try it.

so bet/folding is out. we have 20K left in a 20K pot. if we bet and he has us beat he will always shove (and we must call), but he's probably not calling with worse very often. my guess is that makes an 8K bet roughly breakeven at best, maybe -EV, unless we think he will bluff shove 'a lot' in response. varying bet sizes doesn't matter at all other than cutting down his bluff proportion (but making us pot committed to call a shove anyway.)

so that leaves check/call. since we have a PSB left I assume he'll just shove all his queens and bluffs (maybe he'll bet 10K or something instead both ways but it doesn't really matter) and we will call. I assume he'll bluff, and maybe even thin value shove something like JJ, more than 33% of the time, enough to make the call itself +EV.

so vs. this guy I like c/c. vs. most live anybodies, any other line is much better IMO.

[2005]

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so you put him on air on the river?

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I read river bet as trying to induce a shove

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correct...

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I misread the op, sorry

[bigbabyjesus]

i just bet the flop, eventually happy enough to get it in somewhere.