Checkraise, Checkcall x2

[baronzeus]

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It seems reasonable that he would value bet a good 1pair hand on the turn and river. I think its possible to win 2 bets by checking sometimes.

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maybe, but i think he bluffs more if you bet so it sort of evens out

[jstill]

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the essential difference between checking and betting the turn:

when you bet, you win 1 to 2 when ahead and lose 3 when behind. when you check, you win 0 to 1 when ahead and lose 2 when behind. so i think its pretty obvious which route to take.

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isnt frequency the missing variable here that makes it not obvious which one to take?

i take it ur saying bet (which is what I happen to think) but what is actually right is indiscernable without having some rough estimate of how often we are ahead or behind here (and even then its a bit ambiguous no?)

I do realize based on what u said that wed have to be behind alot more than ahead for cking to be right but....

could u maybe just give me an idea of how often u figure each to happen? is it roughly even or what?

[geormiet]

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the essential difference between checking and betting the turn:

when you bet, you win 1 to 2 when ahead and lose 3 when behind. when you check, you win 0 to 1 when ahead and lose 2 when behind. so i think its pretty obvious which route to take.

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This went over my head...

[Victor]

"when you bet, you win 1 to 2 when ahead and lose 3 when behind. when you check, you win 0 to 1 when ahead and lose 2 when behind. so i think its pretty obvious which route to take."

its not obv at all and depends on how often you win 1 or 2, and 0 or 1.

[Victor]

also if you bet sometimes you win 3 when ahead. bz am i missing something?

[jstill]

i dont think u are victor, I think he knows its about the frequencies with which we re ahead or behind and how often exactly against this villain we will win or lose how many bets with each line

but I think his general statement was just saying intuitively unless for some reason we think we re far more often behind than ahead on this board (I dont think theres a reason to believe this) or villain will not put in many bets behind if we bet or will bluff more often and indiscriminately on two streets when we check; it would seem that betting is going to be (most likely) the best line vs most villains.

Its hard to quantify these things obviously vs various villains (or even a pool of general villains at a given limit or site) to know what the EV of each line is here. Theyre both negative most likely (jsut from the turn on, ignoring the rest of the pot) but we have to pick one and it likely cant be fold with the overlay in the pot and our equity against his range that will bet or raise (arguable on the river vs some villains of course, who wont bet worse hands often enough on the river if we bet call or ck call the turn to call profitably but that can only be a small mistake, I dont think its arguable on the turn we cant fold either way) so its a matter of what loses the least (which is contigent also upon which gains the most when ahead).

very ambiguous tho, I think he knows it wasnt clearly obvious based solely on what he said, but I think his assumptions or deductions from experience lead him to believe the "unknown" variables this depends on arent skewed enough in the direction of the tendencies that would lead towards ck calling down being less -ev than bet calling down (which is also my perception).

not to speak for BZ or anything, curious to hear if what Im saying was what he was thinking at the time more or less.

edit: Does what I wrote make any sense? the wording is a bit of a tounge twister or odd at points, not sure how to make it better and say what Im trying to say though.

[vmacosta]

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"when you bet, you win 1 to 2 when ahead and lose 3 when behind. when you check, you win 0 to 1 when ahead and lose 2 when behind. so i think its pretty obvious which route to take."

its not obv at all and depends on how often you win 1 or 2, and 0 or 1.

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and it also depends on how often ur ahead and how often someone sucks out on the river.