97432 headsup after the first draw - Page 2

LA_Price · #11 07-14-2007, 05:47 PM

Well he actually didn't but that is of course results based thinking. I raised he 3 bet and I broke and drew 1 twice and bricked on the first draw and paired on the last and he showed down 98642. I don't play this game that much and was wondering if his play is standard here.

HOWMANY · #12 07-14-2007, 07:09 PM

Raising and breaking I really don't like. If you raise you have to be prepared to cap because on small bet streets he is going to test you. This is part of the reason I don't like doing something other than breaking. Also he will have you beat fairly often anyway.

Also I think Blumpkin is steaming almost every time he sits at a 2-7 table because he almost never complains while playing Stud 8 but when it's 2-7 he likes to give running commentary on every hand he doesn't win. Not really sure how this should change the way you play.

DeathDonkey · #13 07-14-2007, 07:32 PM

I don't like the way he played it. He has a fine one card draw, meh.

-DeathDonkey

InWithTheBest · #14 07-14-2007, 10:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the way he played it. He has a fine one card draw, meh.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya and its not even close

*TT* · #15 07-15-2007, 12:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Well he actually didn't but that is of course results based thinking. I raised he 3 bet and I broke and drew 1 twice and bricked on the first draw and paired on the last and he showed down 98642. I don't play this game that much and was wondering if his play is standard here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its kinda standard behavior for a non-experienced yet agressive 2-7 player. Blumpkin is still new to the game... but he is getting good very fast.

Interesting note - Blumpkin is a 70% favorite to win if you break, but I still dont like the play because the times that he is a favorite (rare I admit) he is giving you a chance to improve 30% of the time.

InWithTheBest · #16 07-15-2007, 02:46 AM

is 986 really a 70% favorite with 2 draws to go? Sad that i dont know the answer to that. Seems high though

MarkGritter · #17 07-15-2007, 03:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
is 986 really a 70% favorite with 2 draws to go? Sad that i dont know the answer to that. Seems high though

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it is. Though it does depend whether Hero keeps another 9. My calculator puts it at 50.5% in favor of the draw.

41 card stub, 12 live outs (555566688899)

12/41 on second draw
12/40 on third draw

12/41+(29/41)*(12/40) = 0.505

Perhaps TT didn't count the other two 9's as outs?

10/41+(31/41)*(10/40) = 0.433

Still not 70% in favor of the pat hand.

*TT* · #18 07-15-2007, 04:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
is 986 really a 70% favorite with 2 draws to go? Sad that i dont know the answer to that. Seems high though

[/ QUOTE ]

woops - my calculation was with 1 draw to go, I misread the hand when doing the calc. That was my error. From quickly looking over Marks calculation i think he is correct with two draws to go.

Edit after I did my own calc: With 2 draws i got 1.02:1 against hero improving by the river, a virtual tossup (also confirming Gritter's calculation - we got the same result) . Even though Blumpkin is no longer a favorite putting that extra raise in by Blumpkin doesn't pay off.

blumpkin · #19 07-16-2007, 03:56 AM

A few comments:

1. Deathdonkey thinks I'm a showdown monkey in 2-7 because I am against him in that game.

2. Howmany is correct that I often play 2-7 when tilting.

3. It is disgusting that I didn't draw to the 8642.

4. OP got owned.

LA_Price · #20 07-16-2007, 10:57 PM

I will admit that I did get outplayed on the specific hand, but I wouldn't really say I got owned. I still had a 49.5% chance of winning. You would hardly say that someone who won a coin flip in a tournament "owned" the other person. But of course history is written by the winners. We'll clash again. I may be new and inexperienced at this game but I learn.

Also for the preflop cap, I'd been playing lots of 6-max PLO before this. Anyone who has played this game knows it brings out the aggression in you.