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#12
07-13-2007, 01:21 AM
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Re: Do you like this push? Nearly 550bb pot
[ QUOTE ]
Its not an easy fold, we have a 19 out draw :|. Any remaning club, any 7 any jack. [/ QUOTE ] No offence, but if you are missing on math, at least read the post. 
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#13
07-13-2007, 01:29 AM
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Re: Do you like this push? Nearly 550bb pot
[ QUOTE ]
Its not an easy fold, we have a 19 out draw :|. Any remaning club, any 7 any jack. [/ QUOTE ] 19 out???? And this was a BEST case hand we could be up against ...Combo draws derive much of there value from Fold Equity and when WE GET CALLED we are either coin flipping or only slightly behind equity wise...In this hand we have NO FE and more often then not with this action we will be facing either a set,two pair or even a BIGGER DRAW...Easy fold no easy call no either it is most likely over the long run pretty EV neutel to slightly -EV... PS did not to stove to calculate Equity to account for money in the pot..Point was to show that CALLING an AI is not the OBV standard play with a combo non-nut draw...
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#14
07-13-2007, 02:09 AM
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Re: Do you like this push? Nearly 550bb pot
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Its not an easy fold, we have a 19 out draw :|. Any remaning club, any 7 any jack. [/ QUOTE ] Combo draws derive much of there value from Fold Equity and when WE GET CALLED we are either coin flipping or only slightly behind equity wise... [/ QUOTE ] And with the dead money this makes it +EV? OP, I like it.
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#16
07-13-2007, 02:19 AM
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Re: Do you like this push? Nearly 550bb pot
perfect
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#17
07-13-2007, 11:21 AM
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Re: Do you like this push? Nearly 550bb pot
[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold to a 3bet. In this particular hand, you were lucky that the BB was ready to stack off on AQ. Usually its not the case and while one of the villains has a set, the other one has another flush draw. This effectively reduces your outs to 13. Now its fair to assume that with T high, you are dominated by a higher flush and you only have clean 6 outs. Being against a potential full house, it leaves us with only 4. Man, you are in a lot of trouble [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] You dont really have much more than 15-20% equity here. Again, just lucky that BB had AQ no clubs. Small combo draws are very deceiving multiway [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] This is why I was thinking about this hand a lot and wanted opinions. The more I think about it I think it's very rare that the 3 bet pusher has a flush draw in this situation so the only flush draw we need to be worried about is they guy behind, and that's why I think it's correct to push. We'll most likely fold out a better flush draw unless he feels like really gambling when it seems like he'd be up against a set.
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#18
07-13-2007, 11:34 AM
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Re: Do you like this push? Nearly 550bb pot
I don't think BB makes this play with the NFD and BTN doesn't have odds to call it with the FD so I think the following is a decent range. Getting it in here is good...and having it multiway is best but I agree with whoever said that BTN isn't calling a our call but not calling a push except maybe with a FD...so push is better.
Board: Qc 6c 8d Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 27.713% 26.16% 01.55% 24571 1455.00 { 88, 66, AQs, 86s, 7c5c } Hand 1: 27.713% 26.16% 01.55% 24571 1455.00 { 88, 66, AQs, 86s, 7c5c } Hand 2: 44.574% 44.57% 00.00% 41860 0.00 { Tc9c } (AQs used just to discount AQ)
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#19
07-13-2007, 11:41 AM
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Re: Do you like this push? Nearly 550bb pot
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Easy fold to a 3bet. In this particular hand, you were lucky that the BB was ready to stack off on AQ. Usually its not the case and while one of the villains has a set, the other one has another flush draw. This effectively reduces your outs to 13. Now its fair to assume that with T high, you are dominated by a higher flush and you only have clean 6 outs. Being against a potential full house, it leaves us with only 4. Man, you are in a lot of trouble [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] You dont really have much more than 15-20% equity here. Again, just lucky that BB had AQ no clubs. Small combo draws are very deceiving multiway [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] This is why I was thinking about this hand a lot and wanted opinions. The more I think about it I think it's very rare that the 3 bet pusher has a flush draw in this situation so the only flush draw we need to be worried about is they guy behind, and that's why I think it's correct to push. We'll most likely fold out a better flush draw unless he feels like really gambling when it seems like he'd be up against a set. [/ QUOTE ] With so much money in the pot a call from a nut flush draw with some sort of support outs is actually justified. And don't kid yourself, better flushes are not folding [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] It really is a basic multiway flop fold based on your equity estimation. I don't understand what the discussion is about. Perhaps because some people seriously believe that an OES + FD has 19 outs [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#20
07-13-2007, 11:56 AM
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Re: Do you like this push? Nearly 550bb pot
[/ QUOTE ] With so much money in the pot a call from a nut flush draw with some sort of support outs is actually justified. [/ QUOTE ] What supporting outs could a nut flush draw have here? [/ QUOTE ]And don't kid yourself, better flushes are not folding [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] IMO I think most players sitting with 300bb stacks aren't calling here with just flush draws. But for the few times they do aren't we justified by the few the other times we're not up against a better flush draw like this case?
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