Bellagio Cup ME: Hope he bluffs? Hope he hero calls? Cry?

[NoahSD]

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I don't see how you could say it doesn't matter when shoving gets money from a ton of hands that checking doesn't get money from.

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While I agree there are more than enough for shoving to be better than calling, I really don't think there are that many hands. I'd guess he shoves his better two pairs for value if I check the river, plus he likely(?) shoves a lot of them on the turn too.

Steve

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It's not WAY better. It's just really clearly better.

[0evg0]

Agreed with Noah, as usual.

Steve, maybe it's a bit results oriented, but I don't like the size of your c/r.

As played, you're just getting such sick odds to call any bluff that even with this psycho we have to lessen his bluff frequency by a ton when pot is ~24k+ and you have 11k behind.

If you make it 8800 or so, pot is 21-22k with you having 13k behind on the river and suddenly a river bluff from him is WAY more profitable.

Of course that's the results oriented part, but there's really no positives over raising 10k as opposed to 8800. It's not like you're going to stack him any more easily when the river bricks. If you're stacking him on the river after c/r'ing to 10k, you're stacking him on the river after c/r'ing to 8800 too.

And obviously since I think he's bluffing like never, shove.

You haven't mentioned how light he vbets and if he checks back 98/86 it is obviously a disaster of epic proportions.

[nath]

I'd only check if I felt strongly that he was capable of turning a hand with showdown value into a bluff

[0evg0]

Steve,

Would this guy seriously think you were capable of c/f'ing river with KK to a 11k shove in a 24k pot?

Because even though he's not actually thinking about ranges, KK is obviously way at the bottom of your range and even idiots can understand that instinctually.

[8Adam8]

I really like betting the turn

[0evg0]

Adam,

First, Steve has said this guy floats flops like it's his j-o-b. Combine that with the fact that this guy just apparently doesn't fold if he has a big piece of the board.

So on the turn, he either has nothing after floating the flop (in which case c/r is obviously way better because this guy is betting turn with his air 100% of the time) or he has something akin to pair + draw or 2-pair.

Basically, against this guy it really doesn't matter what order the betting goes because he's going to be putting in a [censored]-ton of money when he doesn't have air. So those things being equal, a c/r is simply better for the money we get when he has "air" (meaning a hand he won't call a 2nd barrel with).

That's not nearly as convincing an argument as I made over AIM I don't think, but there you have it.

[8Adam8]

Well, if he is the type to float his air and then raise a turn bet, the argument shifts back to betting the turn.

I think the turn depends on the frequency he bluffs and what type of bluffs he makes. Obviously none of us played with him (but Steve). If he is capable and willing to float air hands on the flop and raise a turn bet rather than give up, the turn bet becomes really effective.

Also, I hate ever giving free cards on this board and it really sucks when he has a drawy hand that he chooses to check behind when we go for a c/r

[0evg0]

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Well, if he is the type to float his air and then raise a turn bet, the argument shifts back to betting the turn.

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Raising a UTG raiser with air on this turn is well beyond the level of psychosis described in the post, IMO.

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I think the turn depends on the frequency he bluffs and what type of bluffs he makes. Obviously none of us played with him (but Steve). If he is capable and willing to float air hands on the flop and raise a turn bet rather than give up, the turn bet becomes really effective.

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Well, reread OP, but the impression I get is that he may raise flop with air sometimes, but Steve has seen no examples of him floating/raising turn with air. I think assuming that's happening with any type of frequency is kind of wishful thinking.

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Also, I hate ever giving free cards on this board and it really sucks when he has a drawy hand that he chooses to check behind when we go for a c/r

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That's the beauty of it. While checking here sucks versus a good player who will check back their pair + draw, this guy has shown every inclination to make a bad mistake by overvaluing his hand in that spot and putting more chips in.

[imabigdeal]

Am I missing something or could villain not easily have a flush here?

[woodguy]

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Am I missing something or could villain not easily have a flush here?

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You are never folding here.