hand in ME day 2 against james van alstine

[Cornell Fiji]

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Cornell, explain how shoving the river is +EV please.

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Because he should realize that we represent nothing and that should widen his range significantly.

Shoving looks like a missed draw and gets called by AK and probably KJs/KTs as well as AQ/QJs if he feels like being a hero (obviously KJ = JJ if you are JVA in this spot).

James will see Doug's shoving range as KK/QQ/KQ/88/spades/JT but Doug is likely to have bet the top of that range on the turn.

JVA is getting great pot odds and its hard to put Doug on a monster with the way that he played it... and often when you shove this deep its either a monster or a missed draw.

JVA is likely to bet the turn with 88/KQ on such a drawy board (to make sure he stacks AK/AA) so we are probably ahead. This play is read dependent because we have to be confident that he was not checking the turn with KQ/88 but since those hands are discounted and because he is calling us with AK/AQ/QJs etc X% of the time the shove could be +ev... especially if he is a deep stack which would widen his calling range in this spot

This is never a shove against a non thinking player.

[adanthar]

this is such a drawy flop I probably just shove there, but if I don't do that (which is an option live) and he checks the turn...30K pot, 50K in my stack...yeah I'm betting at least 20 with a slight chance of shoving.

[PhatPots]

I probably play it pretty much the same way you did. Unless I have a really good read on this guy and I feel I can shove the river and get called by KT, or Ak, etc.

[NoahSD]

I'm stupid. Obv a river shove is just a minraise and doesn't look bluffy at all and given his polarized range is sucks really bad.

[0evg0]

We've all played hands like this a million times, and this is simply the best line.

That being said, if the turn was any number of other cards (that add drawiness to the board), you need to bet because no one goes for the double c/r (for value) on a board like Ks Qs 8c 7x/2s/etc.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
We've all played hands like this a million times, and this is simply the best line.

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no it's really not (live)

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm stupid. Obv a river shove is just a minraise and doesn't look bluffy at all and given his polarized range is sucks really bad.

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I actually also misread and was thinking we had 60k behind on the river (and not 50k).

That said I think that shoving is still defensible because, while we don't look like a bluff it will be very hard for JVA to fold Kx getting 4.6:1. I think that if we are deeper it makes it more likely that we get called by AQ/QJ.


I am not saying river shove is necessarily best, I am just saying that I shove here a nonzero % of the time depending on my reads.

[Tyler Durden]

[ QUOTE ]
this is such a drawy flop I probably just shove there, but if I don't do that (which is an option live) and he checks the turn...30K pot, 50K in my stack...yeah I'm betting at least 20 with a slight chance of shoving.

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I think this is exactly right. What hands are c/r'ing the flop and then checking the turn? Really doesn't look like KQ or a set once he checks. I think his most likely hand is a combo draw (straight draw + flush draw or pair + draw w/ something like 98[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) and I think betting the turn (and calling a push) is the best play.

Note: I think JVA probably *should* have bet/3bet the flop w/ what I think are his most likely holdings, but meh.

[0evg0]

adanthar,

3-bet shoving flop is just ridiculously silly.

The only way it's good is if van Alstyne is terrible enough to be c/r/calling with draws here. And stacks are so absolutely perfect for him to bet/3bet-shove a draw that he really would have to be horrific.

Therefore, his range is a) [censored] that beats us, and b) air.

Why in the world would you shove into that range except to "take down the pot" and not risk losing it later.

Obviously 3bet-shoving flop is the easiest play, but it's so obviously not the best.

[8Adam8]

3bet shoving flop for protection somewhat makes sense, but we are just about never getting called by a worse hand (or folding out a better hand).

I don't really see what a flop 3betshove accomplishes as you cant really say its for value and obviously you don't want to turn it into a bluff.

So aside from protection, the 3bet shove serves little purpose.

Calling gives villain a chance to "value bet" worse hands or bluff, and it also allows us to potentially lose the minimum when we are behind (if we play well).