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#11
07-11-2007, 11:47 AM
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Re: 100 NL, limped pot, re-raise river?
[ QUOTE ]
I like a bet on the flop to build a pot for when you hit/miss. I'm happy to go broke with the 2nd nuts here. [/ QUOTE ] OP said villain is passive. He woke up on the river. He very likely COULD be raising weaker flushes, but if you get called you're probably dead. 
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#12
07-11-2007, 01:03 PM
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Re: 100 NL, limped pot, re-raise river?
Yeah..I like just calling here. Passive villains reraise usually means a good-nut flush.
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#14
07-11-2007, 01:25 PM
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Re: 100 NL, limped pot, re-raise river?
Even passive villains will stack of with worse flushes here. I get the money in and feel good about it.
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#15
07-11-2007, 01:37 PM
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Re: 100 NL, limped pot, re-raise river?
Pooosh.
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#16
07-11-2007, 02:36 PM
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Re: 100 NL, limped pot, re-raise river?
I like a call, because the villain is trying to get a relative (compared to pot size) amount of money in on the river, which is screaming that he has the nuts/near nuts. You have the second nuts, but I would feel much more comfortable raising as opposed to BEING raised.
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#18
07-11-2007, 03:28 PM
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Re: 100 NL, limped pot, re-raise river?
[ QUOTE ]
So he concludes that he is against a str8, set or 2 pair or whatever. He shoves, which then folds out the best hand. He might also conclude this with the nut straight, in a way he is more likely to come to that conclusion with that hand. Because this is such an expensive and bad outcome for us, it may well eat up the gains we made from getting a call to a minraise. [/ QUOTE ]Not if you call the shove. I mentioned I call shove. And there's the extra value you're forgetting from when he shoves with a worse flush. If it's a nuts vs second nuts situation, I'd just see it as a cooler. This is versus the average player. My other point was that even if he's the nittiest nit in nitdom and will only shove the nuts, the raise is still +EV if you have this read, because you can then lay it down on the occasions when he does shove. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If you think you usually (>50% of the time) have the best hand given the river action so far, you should raise. [/ QUOTE ] That's not true at all. If you think you are good 90% of the time but he only calls your raise with the 10% that beats you then you should call. Still in this case I think a raise is in order and I'm probably doing a crying call if he shoves. [/ QUOTE ]You're somewhat right, it does need to be more than 50% of the time because he will sometimes fold worse and shove better. I don't know what the exact % would be, maybe 60 or 70%?
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#19
07-11-2007, 03:33 PM
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Re: 100 NL, limped pot, re-raise river?
Something to note here:
The K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are all out. The best losing flush he can have is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
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#20
07-12-2007, 02:47 AM
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Re: 100 NL, limped pot, re-raise river?
[ QUOTE ]
Something to note here: The K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are all out. The best losing flush he can have is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. [/ QUOTE ]Good point. RESULTS?
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