5-10 3 way 5k+ pot...right call? - Page 2

CrushinFelt · #11 07-11-2007, 01:31 PM

Seat 2: Black Marlin ($1,668.75)
Seat 3: OlliPolli ($1,461.25)
Seat 5: tdogg99 ($2,976.75)

On the flop, we know that seat 3 is calling no matter what we do. So, that's his whole stack in the pot. tdogg's stack is in the pot already (our stack being effective), so that's two full stacks of our size (pretty much) are in the pot, so we are definitely getting 2:1.

If we only had two outcomes:

Worst case: 21%
Best case: 45%

You'd say that we are skewed so much toward the worst case that this is a fold (thus not giving us our ~32%)? I don't believe that. I think that for the most part what I said earlier was correct. You're never in abosolutely terrible shape unless they each have a couple heart + straight outs, and you're not up against two sets enough (given that we have a ten in our hand) to say that this would most of the time be +EV. Thus this call in the long run can't be too skewed either negatively or positively.

Another important factor is the range of Seat 3 to do this raise. He could have something as simple as top two and wanted to take down the raiser's C-bet which makes this MUCH more +EV. To absolutely put both of these players on premium hands (i.e. wraps and sets) 100% of the time is probably not correct.

I stand by my statement of getting it in here.

oneouterson · #12 07-11-2007, 01:51 PM

anyone like re-potting the flop? thats what i'd do.

CrushinFelt · #13 07-11-2007, 02:07 PM

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anyone like re-potting the flop? thats what i'd do.

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I would almost all the time.

sc000t · #14 07-11-2007, 02:09 PM

Ya I dunno how I botched up the numbers, its giving me a headache trying to figure out how I came up with those. I guess today I'm just gonna suck at PLO.

Ribbo · #15 07-11-2007, 02:14 PM

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anyone like re-potting the flop? thats what i'd do.

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Only if both players are going to call, I want as many people in the pot as possible when I have this hand. There is no reason whatsoever to get this heads-up.

CrushinFelt · #16 07-11-2007, 02:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
anyone like re-potting the flop? thats what i'd do.

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Only if both players are going to call, I want as many people in the pot as possible when I have this hand. There is no reason whatsoever to get this heads-up.

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Ehhh, how about taking down the pot right there (with what is probably not the best made hand)? And if you do get reraised by olli that's fine, and if he folds and you get the first guy to call you're now in position for the rest of the hand. If this were a naked FD i'd agree with you or if we didn't have the J, but this hand is good enough to be mixed in with raising so they can't just put you on a set when you raise on a board like this.

Ribbo · #17 07-11-2007, 02:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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anyone like re-potting the flop? thats what i'd do.

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Only if both players are going to call, I want as many people in the pot as possible when I have this hand. There is no reason whatsoever to get this heads-up.

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Ehhh, how about taking down the pot right there (with what is probably not the best made hand)? And if you do get reraised by olli that's fine, and if he folds and you get the first guy to call you're now in position for the rest of the hand. If this were a naked FD i'd agree with you or if we didn't have the J, but this hand is good enough to be mixed in with raising so they can't just put you on a set when you raise on a board like this.

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If you do get reraised, you most certainly are not fine. You're 40/60 against any hand that reraises you.
You get better value from calling and hoping for an overcall.
I don't see the point of getting it all in on the flop heads up when you have position on someone. You have the best position in poker, so why negate all that by shoving the flop?

iggymcfly · #18 07-11-2007, 02:54 PM

False, we're ahead of some wraps and combo draws (we have second pair on this hand too) and can be in a dominating position much more often than we're dominated. It averages out pretty close to 50% when we actually do get all-in here.

However, with villian being the PFR and it being checked to him second last to act, he can really have a super wide range here; he's not even going to have anything worth playing here a lot of the time and there's no reason to let him turn two pair that can beat us if we blank out.

If we had a specific read that villian never C-bets multiway and won't bet close to the pot without a solid made hand, then fine, we can use our position, but against an unknown, we should really be repotting.

Ribbo · #19 07-11-2007, 02:58 PM

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False

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Now you're just arguing for the sake of it.
No way in hell you are 50% against the range of hands UTG is betting here. You're automatically assuming he is continuation betting air into 3 other players.
That makes little sense at 5/10 as that is definitely a flop SOMEONE has hit.

Neuman101 · #20 07-11-2007, 04:16 PM

i certainly raise this flop a lot...however, he raised under the gun and bet out with 2 other big stacks int he pot, and I know he does not have AAxx w/ hearts bc i have A heart draw...he had also checked some top pairish hands rather than C-bet out...I thought with all my outs plus my ten, there is no reason to shove, because when he reshoves ill be facing a really bad decision, where i have to call but am likely behind...

what ended up happening was somewhat similar to what i expected...Olli had KKK and Tdogg had 101010 (drawing 0 percent bc of my quad blocker)...when i ran the hand i beleive i had a lil over 40 percent equity...I bricked o well -- i think i make this call every time.