Breaking News - Ichiro signs 5/yr $100 million deal with M's

[ThaSaltCracka]

baseball contracts are unreal. I remember most were amazed at how much A-Rod was making, but now, the price seems legit. How much is Clemens making per year? Surely Ichiro at 20 is worth more?

[Suigin406]

and i thought the contracts were finally going to stablize when pujols got a 100 mil contract over (6??) years, i thought that would be the ceiling...jeez...

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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baseball contracts are unreal. I remember most were amazed at how much A-Rod was making, but now, the price seems legit. How much is Clemens making per year? Surely Ichiro at 20 is worth more?

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per MORP yeah Ichiro is worth more. that deal w/ Clemens was ridiculous, partially b/c the Yankees were desperate, partially b/c it's the Yankees, partially b/c it's Clemens.

anyways Roger makes more pa than this new deal.

I was just reading today that more teams are understanding the value of young, FA ineligible players, but this deal says otherwise.

[Triumph36]

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fast guys decline slower than adam dunn types

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Link? My not very scientific observations are that HR and BB don't decline rapidly, but SB and range do.

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Ichiro isn't a 'speed only' guy like a Vince Coleman - he's also a very legitimately good hitter.

I'm also not sure if Ichiro's unique skill set is easily predictable by something like PECOTA.

[ThaSaltCracka]

well Bavasi is the GM.


Eh, if it means the M's will be getting more from Japan in revenue, its worth it. He can always DH if he gets too slow.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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Eh, if it means the M's will be getting more from Japan in revenue, its worth it. He can always DH if he gets too slow.

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but as I said above, if this is your goal, don't you need to consider alternatives? Dice-K is worth a whole lot more than Ichiro and cost the Red Sox about $104m for 6 years, half of which was the posting fee which doesn't count against the luxury tax.

[bugstud]

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fast guys decline slower than adam dunn types

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Link? My not very scientific observations are that HR and BB don't decline rapidly, but SB and range do.

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Ichiro isn't a 'speed only' guy like a Vince Coleman - he's also a very legitimately good hitter.

I'm also not sure if Ichiro's unique skill set is easily predictable by something like PECOTA.

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shandler's stuff has problems with it too.

problem is if ichiro loses a step all of the sudden those hits to the left side of the field he sometimes squeaks out will be outs, etc etc.

[Boris]

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Major league teams with a Japanese player on the roster get ALL of their games broadcast on Japanese TV. Ichiro gave the Mariners a good deal.

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but you need to factor in whatever he gives you on the field, you know this.

Nate's MORP has him at $12m this year, declining steadily to $5m by 2011. (granted he is outperforming expectations this year, not that rare for a contract year)

surely there is another Japanese guy coming out who they could have got at a better value.

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Two points. I'll bet that MORP, WARP, Pecota, etc... work well for players that fall in the fat part of the bell curve. For players like Ichiro, maybe not so much.

How much money do you think Ichiro generates annually for the Mariners in merchandise sales alone? 20,000 jerseys at $100 each is already $2m. This also doesn't take into account increased stadium advertising dollars, TV dollars, gate receipts, etc... that can be directly attributed to Ichiro.

[Boris]

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Dice-K is worth a whole lot more than Ichiro...

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Dude. Homerism. Enough.

[mosdef]

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problem is if ichiro loses a step all of the sudden those hits to the left side of the field he sometimes squeaks out will be outs, etc etc.

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It really matters for him, doesn't it? I quickly pulled his hit chart from last year and he had around 20 infield hits to the left. That's the difference between .320 and .290.