1st level WSOP ME w JJ

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
so why not call preflop and play for set value?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's saying its QQ-AA after the 3-bet to 2k

[uclabruinz]

Uh, there had to be a ton of information we're not getting here since this was live, but anyway...

Depending on my live reads, call me a donkey but I'm calling the turn shove a lot. This seems to me like AA or AK with the Ad very, very often.

[uclabruinz]

Wait, why in the world is anyone considering folding the turn? We're calling 12k to win 30k, or 2.5 to 1. Even against QQ+ we are only 53/47 dog. This is not close.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
Wait, why in the world is anyone considering folding the turn? We're calling 12k to win 30k, or 2.5 to 1. Even against QQ+ we are only 53/47 dog. This is not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed, folding here is gross

[uclabruinz]

By the way, I had it backward. We are 54/46 FAVORITE on the turn against QQ+ with the two dead tens.

Board: Kd Qd Jh 7d
Dead: Tc Th

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.833% 45.83% 00.00% 231 0.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 1: 54.167% 54.17% 00.00% 273 0.00 { JdJs }

[registrar]

I like it when people do the math.

Edit: wait, how can we be a favourite against AA and two higher sets? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I mean, I was guessing that this is probably a pot odds call against QQ+, and a fairly easy call if we put AK in there as well.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, I had it backward. We are 54/46 FAVORITE on the turn against QQ+ with the two dead tens.

Board: Kd Qd Jh 7d
Dead: Tc Th

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.833% 45.83% 00.00% 231 0.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 1: 54.167% 54.17% 00.00% 273 0.00 { JdJs }

[/ QUOTE ]

I think KK is most likely, and I think we are a pretty big dog to villain's real likely range, which isn't AK 45% of the time like you are assuming. But yeh, you have to call the turn once you call the flop. Your flush draw is often good even if villain has a higher set.

[Black Aces 518]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so why not call preflop and play for set value?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's saying its QQ-AA after the 3-bet to 2k

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, and I say call the 3bet for set value. You are calling 1400 more with 18K behind, and the kind of player who min-raiseUTG/3bets QQ-AA isn't folding them on J84 flops ever never.

uclabruinz, I think the turn is very read dependent, both on how this player has behaved in previous hands, and the manner in which they physically behaved in this hand.

I think your range is overly positive, b/c I don't think this ever happens with AK no diamond, and rare with AA no diamond. Obv having the Jd in our hand, and BOTH the Q and K as diamonds complicates matters, as we're never drawing to 1 out.

hmmmmm.

[Black Aces 518]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
By the way, I had it backward. We are 54/46 FAVORITE on the turn against QQ+ with the two dead tens.

Board: Kd Qd Jh 7d
Dead: Tc Th

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.833% 45.83% 00.00% 231 0.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 1: 54.167% 54.17% 00.00% 273 0.00 { JdJs }

[/ QUOTE ]

I think KK is most likely, but yeh, you have to call the turn once you call the flop. Your flush draw is always good if villain has a higher set.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I agree, I was wrong, must call turn. ONE TIME DEALER.

[uclabruinz]

Registrar, we have a flush draw on the turn that changes our equity pretty significantly.