lol @ river action

[terp]

if he can play AA/KK/AK/77 like this we need to incl QQ as well.

and if he is calling with any 6, is our equity so much worse versus his range on a "blank" river?

[Austiger]

Whatever he has he was likely slowplaying on the flop. I think he bets the flop with QQ, a 6, or bottom 2. I think it's KK/77 almost every time. Shoving is bad.

[Casper05]

[ QUOTE ]
if he can play AA/KK/AK/77 like this we need to incl QQ as well.

[/ QUOTE ] well, I disagree here...lots of people will slowplay KK/AA but be afraid to see overs with QQ.

[ QUOTE ]
and if he is calling with any 6, is our equity so much worse versus his range on a "blank" river?

[/ QUOTE ]ehh good pt, I dunno, but we don't beat 76 anymore and I think thats a large part of his range. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Suigin406]

shove this, this guy is doing this with any 6, let alone a boat

[Austiger]

All-

We've got 40 hands worth of stats on this guy and he has played ZOMG about 4 more than a standard tag should! Plus we have two related hands where he made some big bets and we don't know what he had because they didn't show down. By all means, let's 5-bet the river with the fourth nuts. WTF?

[Capone]

I would shove here as well.

[Sphere99991]

[ QUOTE ]
All-

We've got 40 hands worth of stats on this guy and he has played ZOMG about 4 more than a standard tag should! Plus we have two related hands where he made some big bets and we don't know what he had because they didn't show down. By all means, let's 5-bet the river with the fifth nuts. WTF?

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP. Let's consider the hands that beat us. KK/QQ are not very likely since he didn't raise. K6 is unlikely since he limped it MP. The only real hand that is beating us at this point is 77. And as played I tend to lean more towards putting villain on 76 than 77. I'd call the 4-bet though.

[Austiger]

Sphere- villain is calling our raise (assuming he's not bluffing which would make it a moot point) so if you put him on a hand we beat more often than one that beats us, you should def. raise. I don't, but if you do you should be raising.

[terp]

a good point to derive from this whole thread (and a few others that are generating discussion today) is the importance of river play in nlhe.

by the river, the pot has swelled and typical bets/calls/raises are often 7-10x what they would be on the flop. errors are much more costly; inducing errors is much more valuable.

leaving money on the table is an error just as folding incorrectly would be but i'm not sure we're ahead of his range (plus getting called) to shove this

[shadow33]

[ QUOTE ]
All-

We've got 40 hands worth of stats on this guy and he has played ZOMG about 4 more than a standard tag should! Plus we have two related hands where he made some big bets and we don't know what he had because they didn't show down. By all means, let's 5-bet the river with the fourth nuts. WTF?

[/ QUOTE ]

Austiger,

This guy limped in MP - That is not the action of a standard TAG -

IMO - Our hand is good quite often.