NL100: Set facing river check raise -- bluff or monster?

[Renton]

i didn't mean to be a dick there, i just dropped a bunch of buyins today calling a bunch of people down who bet like you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Bianculli]

[ QUOTE ]
i didn't mean to be a dick there, i just dropped a bunch of buyins today calling a bunch of people down who bet like you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense taken. You made a good point.

[black666]

If you are beat I expect to see 98 or TT. But you are getting 2.5:1 on the call, so I don't think I can fold this. You will see AJ, AT or some other silly hand often enough to make this a +EV call IMO.

As stated above, I don't like the shove because only better hands will call you. Plus you get to see villain's hand.

[MadMike]

check-raise on river after calling down is a bluff about 0% of the time. He thinks he's got a monster.

98s and AJ are about the only hands that make much sense here- but he'd have to be pretty frisky to c/r with AJ here.

KQ seems f'ed up to be calling the flop and turn bet with a gutshot- particularly when implied odds of one of his gutshot outs (the diamond) are tainted on the turn. Maybe a set of 6's turned on the turn? A set of 10's slowplayed. Did he try and call down with JJ and hit a set on the river?
All that sounds pretty unlikely.

I guess I call this out of confusion and that AJ is about as likely as any other hand here...

Shove is wrong here, I think.

[effang]

[ QUOTE ]
check-raise on river after calling down is a bluff about 0% of the time. He thinks he's got a monster.


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exactly. at these levels, people don't c/r with air because they never know who's folding.

you just need to know if they are fish and overvalue their hands on paired boards. or on flush boards. i love seeing people shove their non-nut straights on flushed boards. it's sexy.