River Bluff

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
Good value bet [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

there's some truth to this; of course it's more of a valuebluff.

[jeffnc]

His "idiocy" from the previous hand doesn't apply - it was of the aggressive, bluffing sort, which had some chance to win.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
His "idiocy" from the previous hand doesn't apply - it was of the aggressive, bluffing sort, which had some chance to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

it applies when it is in reference to his overall manner of play, not just a couple of hands given as brief examples.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
as far as the river raise goes, say we assume he raises it 50% with the nuts and 50% as a bluff. that's basically a zero expectation situation because i win as much as i lose so it can really be disregarded. if you disagree, what do you think we could assign as reasonable %'s to his bluffing frequency? it's obviously too high.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that 50% is too high for any player other than a total maniac, but we can't really quantify a value based on just a few hands anyway. My concerns are that we have to figure he is never folding a better hand when we bet, and is raising with a worse or better hand a pretty fair amount of the time. Put together, that makes this a potentially expensive stab at a small pot.

I definitely see where you're coming from with the move & it's just about guaranteed to get MP out of the hand. But with a guy like that at the table, I'd rather just hold off and wait for a better opportunity. Though in fairness if he calls or raises and beats your ace high on this hand, you'll probably get even more action out of him in the future.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
My concerns are that we have to figure he is never folding a better hand when we bet, and is raising with a worse or better hand a pretty fair amount of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is true, but it doesn't mean that it's not going to work out often enough for it to show profit. what made hands is villain going to suddenly spring to life with based on how the board and action unfolded?

you're right about my reason for posting this, though. i'm turning the tables a bit on the tighter MP player by betting into a "protected" pot. this is a concept that is pretty important in 3handed spots with a fish/bad player and a good player. it is one of the most powerful weapons for folding out better hand in LHE. something that, given the size of the bet compared to the size of the pot, can be very difficult to do.