[50NL] AA - How's my line?

[Vyse]

You're seriously overrating stats. OH NO NOT FORTY HANDS! I OBVIOUSLY KNOW EXACTLY HOW HE PLAYS! You're out of your mind if you think you can reliably say because of your amazing FORTY HAND SAMPLE SIZE that he calls off his stack with TJ.

[Perseus]

[ QUOTE ]
You're seriously overrating stats. OH NO NOT FORTY HANDS! I OBVIOUSLY KNOW EXACTLY HOW HE PLAYS! You're out of your mind if you think you can reliably say because of your amazing FORTY HAND SAMPLE SIZE that he calls off his stack with TJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

at least someone on these boards realizes this.

[sightless]

[ QUOTE ]
You're seriously overrating stats. OH NO NOT FORTY HANDS! I OBVIOUSLY KNOW EXACTLY HOW HE PLAYS! You're out of your mind if you think you can reliably say because of your amazing FORTY HAND SAMPLE SIZE that he calls off his stack with TJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

this forty hand sample clearly illustrates that he is a piss poor poker player.
Those 40 hands aren’t probably very far from he truth; as its highly unlikely than his stats will drastically change over few hundred hands.
Since all he did was call us down and now show any strength we defiantly should bet this river as there a TON OF HANDS 80/1 player will call us down with in this spot.

[fees]

i play it same way

[fees]

correction, I do not play the same way

Since he's such a loose passive fish I normally make good notes, if I dont have anything about chasing draws but I do have something about wont fold any pair I bet here small for value, based on reads and notes

[jessyj07]

[ QUOTE ]
You're seriously overrating stats. OH NO NOT FORTY HANDS! I OBVIOUSLY KNOW EXACTLY HOW HE PLAYS! You're out of your mind if you think you can reliably say because of your amazing FORTY HAND SAMPLE SIZE that he calls off his stack with TJ.

[/ QUOTE ]You can make the conclusion that he is very loose and very passive with his stats over just 40 hands. I wouldn't bet this river though. Vyse, you're a jackass.

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]
ok
kj
qj
tj

he is 80/1/0.55

[/ QUOTE ]

Saying that "he will call with AJ/KJ/QJ/TJ -> push" is too simplistic - even if that is true, this does not prove that push is +EV.

I would guesstimate his range is something like
- 30% flush draws, call the push 100%
- 30% straight draws, fold 100%
- 30% AJ-TJ, call the push 2/3 of times
- 10% two pair etc. hands that beat us, call the push 100%

this would mean that 20% of the time we win X and 40% of the time we lose X by pushing, making push big time -EV. Of course you can disagree with the ranges but I would like to hear what range you would use to make this +EV push.

[sightless]

he almost never has a flush draw here

Flush draw donk shoves this river nearly always

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]
he almost never has a flush draw here

Flush draw donk shoves this river nearly always

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't trust 0.55 AF to bet even the rivered flush, I have seen them check it (just like they sometimes check AA on A55J7 board all 3 streets). Granted the percentage is probably lower than 30% because a lot of the times they indeed donk. Not 0% though.

Regardless, you have to have some kind of hand range for the villain, you can't just say, "push, he'll call with AJ". Or do you put him 100% on AJ-TJ and 0% other hands?

[sightless]

.55 with 80vpip is not that passive at all