Semi Interesting 2/5 hand from Rio 9K pot

[Kala1928]

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I opened from mp with an AAxx

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Board cam AT2 7 2 or something and it went went check check on all streets

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Explain plz

[iggymcfly]

I'm really surprised that people are disputing the reraise preflop. With double-suited aces, I think this is automatic. The double-suited nature of our hand gives us a huge equity edge and we're shallow enough that our opponents can't play correctly for implied odds.

Also, that graph's really deceptive as it says we have to have 50% flop equity 20% of the time in a multi-way pot to break even. This is ridiculous. We could never have 50% flop equity and still make a huge profit by often getting it in at 40% in a 3-way pot or 30% in a 4-way one after some players fold the flop.

[Troll_Inc]

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I'm really surprised that people are disputing the reraise preflop. With double-suited aces, I think this is automatic.

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By 4 betting Full POT with so many people in the hand, here is what I suspect is automatic:

* People are going to put you on aces
* Everyone including the LAG 2 bettor is call to try and take down the aces.
* You are now priced in where often you will have to call putting 66% of your stack in as EV = slightly better than zero. If you want to fold, you just expended 33% of your stack.

Maybe I'm wrong and the OP 4-bet with other hands?


Getting 33% of your hand in under these conditions is not a _great_ situation for the same reason playing PLO tournaments is not great situation. Roundtower says plonkaments are novelties; I'd say getting 33% of your stack in a 4ltiway pot is a novelty.

Also, I'll say this again because people seem to misunderstand easily or get caught up thinking unclearly. I'm not saying this is a huge mistake or that you are throwing money away. I'm just saying that I think calling or raising less than full pot is a better play deepstacked. If you raise to $450, I'd bet you have a better chance of a little fold equity from the people in middle or that even one of the LAGs will reraise all in.

Lastly, the only point I'm making by showing the graph here is the basic mathematic truth that the gap in starting value (i.e. preflop) between Premium aces, Bad aces, and random hands converge as the number of players seeing the flop increases.

I apologize in advance if I've upset any "feel" players with my comments in this thread.

[donkeykong2]

i think the reraise is very good here because:
we have around 40% preflop equity vs 3 top 30% hands what means that we gain around 550 (sklansky bucks or how do you call that [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]?) there.
we are probably ahead on 60% of the flops and on the other 40% we would probably have an ev of 20% getting it in.
if we get it in on that 40% vs one opponent we lose around 1100 in ev ->40%*1100=440 thats less than we gained on the flop.

on the flops we are ahead on we can only gain ev. i think the gain in equity has to be big by reraising preflop even if we just get it in regardless of the flop.
its pretty difficult the calculate the exact values for the flop play but the other players are not in a good position on the flop imo as you only have a half pot left and they ll often have to lay down hands with 30 to 0% equity against you.

[Troll_Inc]

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we have around 40% preflop equity vs 3 top 30% hands what means that we gain around 550 (sklansky bucks or how do you call that [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]?) there.
we are probably ahead on 60% of the flops and on the other 40% we would probably have an ev of 20% getting it in.

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You are on the way to answering a mathematically unaswerable (but estimatable) question.

1. I'm probably the biggest proponent of using the preflop all in equity calculations to calculate preflop equity, even when you are going to see the flop. However, I think that this has its limitations when 4 people see the flop.

2. I believe your analysis of what % of flops you are ahead on, is incorrect. I think it's more like you are winning 30%ish.

But good job otherwise. This is the way to answer the question rather than the qualitative statements made by experience winning poker players.

[donkeykong2]

@2:
you re probably right, i actually had to guess because the propokertools only gives you your equity vs all three players so i can only surely assume to be ahead on around 34 % of the flops but it is pretty likely we are ahead with 40% or even at 30% equity sometimes with 4 on the flop or at least get it in 3 way which isnt doing any damage.
the double suitedness makes a pretty big difference especially with 4 to the flop.

[iggymcfly]

Here's what I'd say:

-First, if you 4-bet at all, people are going to put you on aces regardless of what size bet you make, in fact most people put you on aces on a 3-bet unless you've been playing very aggressively preflop. I'm starting to think that a lot of situations where 2+2ers keep reraising aces when I wouldn't, it's because they falsely think that people will put them on a wider range than they do.

-Second, we just aren't going to make a lot of mistakes postflop in this situation. If we assume that the short stack always calls the flop and that one of the deep-stack players usually folds, then we only need 26% equity between the main pot and the side pot to make calling correct. I don't have any poker tools more complex than PTO, but if someone wants to see what % of flops double-suited aces have at least 26% equity against one completely random top 30% hand and the better of two top 30% hands postflop that aren't aces, I'd bet it's at least 75% of the time.

-If anyone's likely to make a mistake postflop, it will more likely be our opponents who will call with non-nut flush draws that are second best to our nut flush draws, or who will be forced to fold hands that would have enough equity to call in a 3-way pot where the stacks are capped at $2500, but will fold due to not wanting to call a large bet in the side pot.

-Finally, if it's not causing us to make mistakes postflop, then I don't see how we can pass up this $550 in preflop equity. That's more a full buy-in of equity, and I really can't imagine we can gain that much (actually would have to be more if we're making less mistakes postflop) by just calling.

[Troll_Inc]

2. It's "only" 60%, but remember that's the breakeven point.. We are looking for the _best_ line, as I've said before I think both are +EV.

3. Will our opponents make the same mistakes if we bet like $400 or $450? You really think lesser skilled opponents at the table are going to see the difference between a really big pot and a super huge pot?

Finally. It's not really $550 in preflop equity (see above post).

[iggymcfly]

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2. It's "only" 60%, but remember that's the breakeven point.. We are looking for the _best_ line, as I've said before I think both are +EV.

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On that 60% calculation, did you figure in that $2600 of the $7100 pot is HU on the side? I think we're better than break-even to play on a lot more than 60% of flops in that situation. Also, my point isn't just that our strategy is breakeven. My point is that if it's not causing us to make mistakes postflop, then we have no reason to pass up the equity we can gain by reraising preflop. Also, I'd love to know how "it's not really $550 in preflop equity". All you did in the "above post" was imply that the postflop considerations made the preflop equity irrelevant. I'm saying we're still making money postflop, so that this line gains us at least $550 which is more than I think calling would.


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3. Will our opponents make the same mistakes if we bet like $400 or $450? You really think lesser skilled opponents at the table are going to see the difference between a really big pot and a super huge pot?

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I still fail to see why you'd even consider making a smaller 4-bet here. That seems to be unequivocally worse than either calling or reraising. As far as I see, the decision's largely driven by two competing concerns:

1. Maximizing our equity with a premium hand
2. Disguising that we have aces.

The small 4-bet does neither. Our opponents know exactly what we have, but we fail to get a significant amount of money in the pot. Also, the small 4-bet gives us very awkward stack sizes as we've got almost exactly the size of the pot left on the flop 4-ways, giving us a very difficult decision on whether to commit to our aces. A pot-sized reraise takes that consideration out of play allowing us to auto-shove any reasonable flop.