TPGK two cold.

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes my outs count is iffy but they are hard to count here. They could be anything from needing runner runner to actually being ahead. I don't think I can call two here, especially not closing the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it is difficult to estimate your outs here.

Nonetheless, discounting for the Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (which could still be good), I would give myself say 4 outs for making 2 pair or trips. I would then give myself say a further 1 out for my bdfd.

I would also estimate that my implied odds if I improved to the best hand, would roughly cancel out the worsened pot odds if there was further action on the flop.

So, getting immediate pot odds of 7:1, I think that I would have a thin flop call with my estimated total of 5 outs.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
I would also estimate that my implied odds if I improved to the best hand, would roughly cancel out the worsened pot odds if there was further action on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any implied odds you think you have on a call are negated by the possibility that you hit your hand and it's not good, and that there are several redraws even if we do hit. 77, 88, JJ, QQ, AJ, KJ, J8, J7, Q8, Q7 and T9 are all hands that taint your outs even if we don't take the heart draw into account.

[NIX]

I call preflop, then, without actual reads, I fold the flop.

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would also estimate that my implied odds if I improved to the best hand, would roughly cancel out the worsened pot odds if there was further action on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any implied odds you think you have on a call are negated by the possibility that you hit your hand and it's not good, and that there are several redraws even if we do hit. 77, 88, JJ, QQ, AJ, KJ, J8, J7, Q8, Q7 and T9 are all hands that taint your outs even if we don't take the heart draw into account.

[/ QUOTE ]

Our QJ dominates Q8 and Q7 doesnt it ? But, those are a lot of possible hands that you mentioned, that taint our outs !

Thankyou for your explanation. My estimate of 5 outs looks far too optimistic now.

[NigelSmith]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think this is a very good spot to get heads up. To me at least, we want to see the flop with lots of company and a big pot with this hand. Best case would be 6+ callers and no raise. IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
Kind of my point -- we're 8-handed with one fold and no guarantee the blinds will call the raise. Would we rather have 1 villain or 4? 40% equity in a pot with some dead money and the ability to reach a cheap showdown if required, or 20% of a larger pot where anything that hits us can hit the villains just as hard, making it expensive to carry on...

When does "company" become "lots of company"?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think this is a very good spot to get heads up. To me at least, we want to see the flop with lots of company and a big pot with this hand. Best case would be 6+ callers and no raise. IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
Kind of my point -- we're 8-handed with one fold and no guarantee the blinds will call the raise. Would we rather have 1 villain or 4? 40% equity in a pot with some dead money and the ability to reach a cheap showdown if required, or 20% of a larger pot where anything that hits us can hit the villains just as hard, making it expensive to carry on...

When does "company" become "lots of company"?

[/ QUOTE ]

If a 3-bet could *ACTUALLY* make us heads up, then given the dead money in the pot it would be better to 3-bet to isolate. However, with 4 players in the pot in front of us, the chances of this happening are so small that it's a -EV gamble to try.

I would coldcall if there were 3 voluntarily in the pot in front of me already.

The transition between "company" and "lots of company" varies with the hand you hold and the quality of the skill level of the villains at the table.

[Xhad]

bona: it's funny you should mention KOTKP because I distinctly remember owning you HU at limit despite running bad, precisely because you were folding so much

Fantam: d'oh, brain fart (though those hands are the least likely of the ones I listed anyway)

Nigel: Mind showing your work on those equity figures (I don't think a 20% equity jump is even close to realistic especially with a sane pfr range in there)? Do you realize that any extra equity you get is going to come from one pair hands that will also put you in reverse implied odds situations, and that reraising screws up your implied odds on your monsters?

[Bona]

Yes I recall that vicious luck box mugging. If you make it to HU again this time maybe we could have a friendly wager? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[aK13]

I'm not convinced 3betting is far from correct here.

MP1 is just being a fish.
MP2's stats are uber LAGTAG. I imagine that this flop raise doesn't mean we are behind all that often. It's probably not far from incorrect for him to raise AK or AQ here, to knock out reverse domination hands or gutshots since the pot is so big, not to mention I'm sure he raises this spot with Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] a good portion also.

[Xhad]

If everyone comes along then 3bet is meh for immediate equity but kills our implied odds. If like one or two limpers call leaving it as us, the PFR and whoever called then we definitely boned ourselves.