UFC 73 Thread

[DannyOcean_]

In my opinion, nate is the outright favorite, and i'd take him at any + number and maybe some low - numbers. I just don't think silva can stop him from taking him down at all, and i don't think his BJJ is all that it's cracked up to be.

[MikeyPatriot]

Is there a line out on Nog/Herring yet? If not, what would you set it at?

[JasonK]

I saw Nog -700 somewhere but can't remember where.

[apple11]

I am on Silva his stand up is was better then Nate's and even if he is taking to the ground I could def see him catching Nate in a sub.

[JasonK]

No way, Silva won't sub Marquardt.

[igetbadbeat]

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I am on Silva his stand up is was better then Nate's and even if he is taking to the ground I could def see him catching Nate in a sub.

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I find it highly unlikely that Silva subs nate but I would like to share two thoughts

1) I have a feeling nate and silva are going to have to bang for a bit/a lot and that is not going to be good for Marquardt. IMO I think it might be better if he were a lil worse standing up. Think of it like Tito/Chuck...Tito's standup is ok and that led to his downfall vs chuck. Shouldn't get your gameplan confused.

2) Silva's knees were demolished during the lutter fight. While I was the first to say that Silva's wrestling is his weak point(U can check pre UFC 67 threads), I don't believe it to be as weak as we saw vs Lutter.

I wouldn't bet the fight in marduardt was -110.

[Cracka Lacka]

[ QUOTE ]
My picks will be up when full lines hit, probably Tuesday.

-P

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This guy is the best

[DannyOcean_]

They'll be here as soon as he gets them on ufcjunkie, the site he works with.

p.s. hurry up perf i'm dying to either look like a genius or a fool by matching/not matching picks with you.

[Performify]

Lines hit mid-day today not tuesday.

My writeup has been done, I've been waiting on my editor since about 5pm my time.

I don't think he's coming out with them tonight.

I'll reformulate and post some stuff here in a bit.

[Performify]

The writeup is going up in the next few minutes on junkie for those looking for details.



These are my public picks against the WA lines as of the time of the writeup:

* Jorge Gurgel (-225) — Arbitrage for 0.04 unit profit.
* Chris Lytle (-410) — No Play
* Mark Bocek (+260) — .5u to win 1.3 units
* Stephan Bonnar (-450) — No Play
* Nate Marquardt (+140) — 2.15 units to win 3 units
* Hermes Franca (+215) — 0.6 units to win 1.3 units
* Rashad Evans (+110) — 1 unit to win 1.1 units
* Kenny Florian (-320) — No Play
* Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (-625) — No Play


My editor got slammed yesterday so I'll have to adjust a bit. The arb on Gurgel has dried - I'd be comfortable betting him small straight up, probably to win a half unit.

Short of it:

Gurgel should be a +EV bet at the current odds but there's a lot of unknowns there so I can't recommend heavy.

Bocek is a good bet around +250, worth approx to win 1.5 units. scale down a bit as the odds tighten. At +200 or above I'd go to win a unit

Marquardt at +140 remains a multi-unit play, which means you can imagine how heavy I am on him when i have him averaged at +185. I'd be willing to roughly play to win two units at +120 and one unit at +100. Because of this bet, much of the rest of the card loses its attractiveness.

Rashad over Tito up to -110 scaled appropriately.

Nog should be a pretty safe play at -625 if you need a bridgejumper.

Sorry these are so much later than expected.

-P