Should I get invoved in this pot?

[aaaaa]

pot = 600+300+ante*7 = 1250
+ CO(1250)+Btn(4535) = 7000

Button does not want SB or BB in the pot. I put him on AJ-AK, 99-QQ

1. If CO calls, he has a pair or AK and the pot is 15K+

2. If he folds, you're up against Btn's range which is a good thing.

Having played the 4/180s quite a few times, with M < 10, I ask those who say "easy shove" if they'd call with AJs...

I'd fold -- While call a race on a bubble with OK odds?? There will be many chances to steal pots on the bubble ahead with your stack size.

[seke2]

Why get involved? Because CO open-raised in LP. He does not need a strong hand to do that. He also minraised which I think is more often a crappy hand than a strong one. So most of the time, CO folds. Why should HE call a race on the bubble with OK odds? You're putting HIM to the hard decision here.

Against the BU's range you are in awesome shape because he is pushing with AJ and AT and hands like that in this spot. I'd probably isolate here with AJ also because I think the BU's pushing range includes some worse aces and lots of small pairs. AJ is pretty close to the worst ace I'm isolating with here, I MIGHT do it with AT but most likely I'd fold that. I dunno. That might be worth playing too.

So your only real concern is CO, and he's calling your isolation push rarely enough (because he doesn't want to bubble either) that it's very profitable, not to mention the times he calls and you win anyway, which will include a number of times when you're flipping against TT/JJ.

And even in the worst case scenario that you lose the main and side pot here, you still are left with a very workable stack and no real risk of not bubbling. On the other hand, if you win this pot, you're getting an excellent stack that will give you tons of room to abuse the bubble and not worry about getting called much.

[PantsOnFire]

Given the payout structure of this tourney when 10-18 get about what $6?, then collecting two stacks here is a huge step forward to having a really decent stack at the final table and going for first.

There are only 4 hands that dominate you. I think the ranges are too large here so I insta-shove.

[Sherman]

I'd probably fold. But more and more often, I am starting to realize I can't explain why. But I'll give it a shot here:

You have 18K which is a massive stack at this point in the tournament. Near this bubble, you can probably make some relatively risk free moves to build your stack to ~20K or maybe more if you are fortunate. By risk free moves I mean open raising in MP or LP and picking up the blinds. Or taking on a very short stack ~2K with a marginally strong hand.

Psychologically, people are going to be more afraid of your 18K stack than if you lose here and go to 12K. At 12K, they realize their stacks can hurt you so they might make a move on you. At 18K, they don't think they can hurt you and will be reluctant to play with you.

Basically, what I am saying here is that the utility of have 18K in chips is greater than have 12K in chips.

So...is the utility of having 24K in chips (winning the hand) greater than the utility of having 18K in chips? Obviously the answer is yes. Having 24K is better than 18K. The real question however is this: Does increasing your stack from 18K to 24K worth as much as decreasing your stack from 18K to 12K. IMO, no and it isn't even close.

At this point, 18K is a monster. 24K is also a monster. 12K is not a monster. You don't gain as much functional utility by increasing your stack to 24K as you lose by decreasing your stack to 12K. This is because at 12K people are going to look you up more often and be more willing to re-raise you.

To make it as simple as possible, if someone offered you a 6K coinflip (true 50/50) at this point in the tournament would you take it? I wouldn't. You have too much functional utility to lose and not enough to gain.

So my entire reasoning for folding is completely math irrelevant (or is it?). I haven't given a single hand range or done any equity calculations. However, I am making the assumption that calling here (or shoving) with AQ is a marginally close cEV play (maybe slightly -cEV mayble slight +cEV). If this is a marginally close cEV decision, like I think it is, I would consider other factors. The factor that is most important here (beyond cEV) is functional utility of chips. You stand to lose more functional utility when you lose than you gain when you win...so my vote is to fold.

[FireStorm]

PantsOnfire has it right. Taking out one or two players here and moving well over 20k in chips would do wonders for you in terms of getting a high payout spot. You are ahead or flipping often enough here to make it profitable, and are getting solid odds. Worst case scenario u end the hand with 12k, and this is assuming CO shoves and you lose to both of them. Get the money in.

[Kyle Flynn]

I get my money all in here, looking to isolate.

Sherman, makes a compelling argument. But in the end, I see AQ being the best hand here, or flipping with the pot giving better odds.

12K is still manageable stack. -- Shove it in.



-This is an interesting situation. hopefully, there is more discussion/opinions to chime in.

[footnbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
However, I am making the assumption that calling here (or shoving) with AQ is a marginally close cEV play (maybe slightly -cEV mayble slight +cEV).

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't really had time to digest all that you're saying here, but on my first read this sticks out to me as a problem. I don't think theres anything marginal about pushing here, I would say its full blown +EV.

Interesting stuff though.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
However, I am making the assumption that calling here (or shoving) with AQ is a marginally close cEV play (maybe slightly -cEV mayble slight +cEV).

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't really had time to digest all that you're saying here, but on my first read this sticks out to me as a problem. I don't think theres anything marginal about pushing here, I would say its full blown +EV.

Interesting stuff though.

[/ QUOTE ]

My entire analysis hinges on the assumption that this is marginally close EV. Given that OP doesn't give us any real reads (like the ones I might have if I were at the table the entire time) I made that assumption. If calling/shoving here is widely +cEV, then by all means do so. Most often when I am at the table, I'll have a better feel for ranges and will just know if this is +EV or -EV right out and not have to consider much beyond that. But sometimes when I am not sure, (as I am here) I'll consider other variables.

[Acein8ter]

Gamble - Push
Conservative - Fold

You don't want to see him turn over AK...

[seke2]

I don't think it's marginally close, personally. As far as not having real reads, this is BU's first hand on the table and CO "might" be solid but he also just minraised so I doubt it.

If I thought it was marginally close I think I'd exactly with Sherm. Like, give us AJ or AT, I think Sherm's post is spot on. But with AQ? I don't think it's marginal anymore.