AK

[Maxinho]

I would say villain has QQ JJ or KK
when he saw the ace he checked, with that amount in front of him he could bet that would not make a dif

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
Over cards I always count 1.5 outs for each card, you don't have a lot more than this, because sometimes you will hit but still loose

But because se size of the pot it was ok

[/ QUOTE ]
If you're only giving yourself three outs, then it's not okay on the turn. See above.

Luckily, the overcards-as-1.5-outs is not a hard and fast rule. Take a look at this action: the only way all of your A and K outs aren't good is if Villain has AA, KK, or something that has you reverse dominated like A7 or K8. But he three-bet preflop, so throw those last ones out.

If we give him an ultra-tight range from the turn of JJ+, then he can have JJ and QQ six ways, and AA and KK three ways apiece. So plugging in an outs calculation gives us this:

[6(6) + 6(6) + 3(3) + 3(0)] / (6 + 6 + 3 + 3)

= (36 + 36 + 9 + 0) / 18

= 81 / 18

= 4.5 outs

Which is enough to draw getting 10-1 on the turn.

[JJack]

marchron thx very much !!!
But I have some questions about this math.

[6(6) + 6(6) + 3(3) + 3(0)] / (6 + 6 + 3 + 3)

"6(6)" there are 6 way to get pocet(JJ,QQ), and we win with all of those if we hit A or K

"3(0)" there are only 3 way to our opponent have AA cus we have one A, but if we hit A or K we will still lose

1)
and here is my problem:
"3(3)" there are only 3 way to our opponent to have KK cus we have one K, BUT we will win if we hit A and lose if we hit K so shouldnt be "3(1,5)"? (50% times we only win)

2)
And 2nd question how to add to this math probably TILT my opponent?

3)
And last question If we have good odds to call and we hit what we need for example K should we play still passive WA/WB or we can try bet/raise for value? (with A is rather always bet/raise for value if board isnt scare and 1-2 opponents, right?)
Is my thinking procces ok?

[JerBear77]

*grunch*

I personally cap the AK preflop w/ position, but i can see keeping at 3 bets also....


Problem with the flop here is that we have a huge pot where we are probably looking at best 6 outs, but my gut says that we have less outs than that. With 3 players and the fact that noone is getting out of this hand, i would check and see what the CO does. If CO leads, and BB C/Rs I can find a fold here as im looking at him having Ks, As, or a set (which he shouldn't be in the hand to begin with).

River spiking the A could be a win for you but Im not sure, as I really don't have knowledge after the flop how strong everyone is....

The way it was played I would prolly fold the Turn since it was UI for my hand, that might be debatable, but I just don't like my spot there being sandwiched a C/R and an unknown with "maybe" (and i stress maybe) 6 outs.

[Yerma]

I think that after the preflop 3-bet and the flop c/r, you should increase the probability that he has exactly AA or KK, and reduce the probability that he has something like AK, or TT-QQ. The reason is that if he does have something like TT-QQ, he should bet the flop himself. If he doesn't bet the flop with those hands, he risks giving two different players a free card to beat him with overcard draws. With hands like KK and AA, the BB does not risk as much on the flop by checking, so he can try for the check-raise.

You might be thinking, if the BB had TT-QQ, why would giving a free card on the flop hurt? Players will draw with overcards anyhow. That's not necessarily true against two players. If he's up against AK from MP2, the BB's bet may entice the AK to raise, knocking out a potential different set of overcards from CO. Even if MP2 only calls, will a hand like AJ from the CO draw as well? Not always.

Incidentally, if BB checks to you and you have either AA or AK in MP2, you should probably also check. With AA, you're hoping to represent AK so that if someone catches up a little or tries something fancy on the turn then you can get an extra double-sized bet. With AK, you're not knocking out any other reasonable holding, including another AK. So betting your AK will only show value if you bluff through the turn and river and get someone else to fold another AK when neither of you improve.

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
and here is my problem:
"3(3)" there are only 3 way to our opponent to have KK cus we have one K, BUT we will win if we hit A and lose if we hit K so shouldnt be "3(1,5)"? (50% times we only win)

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm talking about the odds faced us on the turn. Since there's only one card left, if we hit an A we beat KK.

[ QUOTE ]
And 2nd question how to add to this math probably TILT my opponent?

[/ QUOTE ]
Not much, 'cause he's going broke. Implied tilt odds are more of a no-limit concept because you can take 50-100 BB from someone in one hand instead of 5 or 6.