I has an overpair

[carnivalhobo]

how does the hand change if im been playing like 26/20/4 lately and have a deranged image?

[carnivalhobo]

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i see the SB having a set, and the CO having AA, or KK here. easy fold.

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you need to have your eyes checked

[dirtytricks]

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Looks like a pretty easy fold. I doubt CO is overpushing with TT here.

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if im folding JJ doesnt that make it a damn good play?

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Why?

The fish has something here and villain doesnt have AK.

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Because villain, if he does have AK, is thinking about what carnivalhobo thinks he has and making a raise that he knows that he can't call with JJ (then again, it's probably -EV, especially mutiway, right?)


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This is overthinking at this level. The fish probably beats AK and hero can have QQ,KK,AA. This is not a bluff.

[The.Accountant]

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Looks like a pretty easy fold. I doubt CO is overpushing with TT here.

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if im folding JJ doesnt that make it a damn good play?

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Why?

The fish has something here and villain doesnt have AK.

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Because villain, if he does have AK, is thinking about what carnivalhobo thinks he has and making a raise that he knows that he can't call with JJ (then again, it's probably -EV, especially mutiway, right?)


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This is overthinking at this level. The fish probably beats AK and hero can have QQ,KK,AA. This is not a bluff.

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right, which is what I explained if you read the paragraph below...lol

[HoldenFoldem]

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i see the SB having a set, and the CO having AA, or KK here. easy fold.

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you need to have your eyes checked

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Okay, i looked at it again. The SB may be one of those pain in the ass short stacks who pushes any dry flop, hoping to steal the pot.

However, how do you explain the push with $183....does he have a history with you of pushing with air???? If not, easy fold.

[carnivalhobo]

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i see the SB having a set, and the CO having AA, or KK here. easy fold.

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you need to have your eyes checked

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Okay, i looked at it again. The SB may be one of those pain in the ass short stacks who pushes any dry flop, hoping to steal the pot.

However, how do you explain the push with $183....does he have a history with you of pushing with air???? If not, easy fold.

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if i had AK, your reasoning would be ok, but i have the 4th best starting hand. If villain knows what you and i know about stupid shortstacks, then cant he have worse pairs or overs + fd type hands here?

[HoldenFoldem]

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i see the SB having a set, and the CO having AA, or KK here. easy fold.

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you need to have your eyes checked

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Okay, i looked at it again. The SB may be one of those pain in the ass short stacks who pushes any dry flop, hoping to steal the pot.

However, how do you explain the push with $183....does he have a history with you of pushing with air???? If not, easy fold.

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if i had AK, your reasoning would be ok, but i have the 4th best starting hand. If villain knows what you and i know about stupid shortstacks, then cant he have worse pairs or overs + fd type hands here?

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Absolutely, he can; IF that is his style of play. Ya gotta be a huge LAG to push here with air. Is he?? If you really aren't sure, its an easy fold.

[TheMadHeater]

I think CO pushes QQ+ (and possibly AK) pf behind bad shorty's cold call, especially if you've been 3-betting light. On the flop he probably pushes with anything he thinks has decent equity against shorty's range, looking to isolate and gamble with dead money and knowing that you have a tough call with most of your range. I'm guessing CO can have big diamonds, 88-TT, maybe even 87s, 97s since he'd probably see a flop with those getting good odds and closing the action. He can also have 33/44/77.

CO's range here depends on how weak shorty's range is and how light he perceives your pf 3-betting range to be. If you think shorty can push weak here (air, 88 etc.) and think that CO thinks the same, then I'd call. You're only losing the sidepot to sets and you probably have good enough equity in the main pot against the two ranges to be a money favourite.

[Unknown Soldier]

any idea of his specific tendancies? does he call 3b quite light? I think I call here. Quite close though

[TheMadHeater]

If we give the bad shorty a range of AK, AdQd, 88+ then he's pushing around 20% with air and the rest with hands he thinks may be good. If CO gives shorty this range then he can profitably push with sets, 88-TT and big diamond draws assuming that you fold a decent percentage of the time. I don't feel like quantifying a range CO can put you on and what part of that you'd have to fold but I think it's fair to assume that if you're 3-betting non premiums some percentage of the time then you'll fold to his push here A LOT.


Board: 7d 3d 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.509% 46.57% 00.94% 914210 18479.00 { 88+, AKs, AdQd, AKo }
Hand 1: 52.491% 51.55% 00.94% 1012002 18479.00 { TT-77, 44-33, AdQd, AdJd, KdQd, 97s, 87s }


And if he pushes with that range, which he shoud be, then you can profitably call with JJ.

Board: 7d 3d 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.030% 36.10% 00.93% 573698 14818.67 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 31.118% 30.17% 00.94% 479558 14996.67 { 88+, AKs, AdQd, AKo }
Hand 2: 31.851% 31.49% 00.36% 500513 5695.67 { TT-77, 44-33, AdQd, AdJd, KdQd, 97s, 87s }

Note that as per my previous post I omitted AK/QQ+ from CO's postflop range, since I believe he mostly shoves those preflop behind shorty's cold call.