River: c/r or b/r ?

[HoneyBadger]

Thanks for the replies [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Prof. Ben can sleep easy tonight: I sexied it. I also thought a c/r was best, but then after the hand I wondered: "what about b/r?". Guess you guys think the same, and thanks for the numbers hyper.

[James.]

a double donk on the big streets would look so goofy.

it makes me sort of like it.

if he has AK or an underpocketpair, he may bluff a portion of the time, but he's most likely raising the turn for a free showdown(as you alluded to). in that case he's checking the river most all of the time. a donk into a hand like AK or 77 on that board will result in a call most all of the time given the pot size and his likely image of you. so the best way to get at least one bet in on the river versus AK/underpairs is usually donk.

the rest of the time, he's probably over a 2-1 favorite to have a big pocket pair(varies exactly on what you put his range at, but close enough). do you really think he's not raising QQ-AA most all of the time when you pull the 'ole double donk out of the bag of tricks? hell yes he's raising. and he's not folding those hands to a 3bet, either(if he is, he could very well consider folding to a c/r a significant nonzero portion of the time also). i would guess he's raising an overpair a minimum of 65-70% of the time on the river.

i really think b/3b is likely better versus this guy and his range. the only drawback(in my mind) is the oddity of the line. *sometimes* your line will look wierd and confuse him into calling. this works in your favor when he has a weak hand and he didn't want to put a 3rd big bet in on 5th street after popping the turn. it can work against you if he gets puzzled and makes a call because he's not sure where he's at. thing is, 2.0 postflop AF isn't what i would qualify as "passive". he should understand what range of your UTG raising hands he's ahead of and be raising alot of those hands for value. the wider your UTG raising range, the more this is true. makes me lean towards a ba-donk-a-donk bet.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
Prof. Ben can sleep easy tonight: I sexied it.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's not technically a river sexy unless you were the last aggressor on the turn. that said, river c/r are always "sexy" in my book(even if they're not the best option).

[Xhad]

God, I just realized I've misread the action twice. I thought this was 3handed and button had coldcalled the flop and raised turn. As played it's still entirely possible he'll raise your river donk but TAGs "on the passive side" are more likely to guess what you're up to with a donk than they are to fold to the c/r imo.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
TAGs "on the passive side" are more likely to guess what you're up to with a donk than they are to fold to the c/r imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

as i stated, i agree if he was a 1.2 or 1.5 postflop AF. a 2.0 isn't really "passive".

[HoneyBadger]

[ QUOTE ]
it's not technically a river sexy unless you were the last aggressor on the turn. that said, river c/r are always "sexy" in my book(even if they're not the best option).

[/ QUOTE ]True, true [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'm still not sure, my thought process after the hand was basically what james said. At the table it all only took second, I don't wait, I play very fast, so it went check-bet-raise in 2 seconds after river card fell.

My primary reason to donk the river would be so he can't check AK behind. I think the c/r vs b/r is about even, sometimes he won't raise, sometimes he will, averaging out to about 2 BB anyhow, assuming he won't check behind.

[BigBadBabar]

i really don't think he shows up with AK all that often here.

[StrictlyStrategy]

Honestly, what's all this AK stuff about. He has AK like 1% of the time here and he's not betting the river with it if he does(value bluff?) and he's probably not calling much either.

[sharpie]

Check/raise the river, I don't think he's raising QQ-AA much. He's basically never raising QQ. KK he shouldn't be raising because you wouldn't donk QQ because now even JJ beats you, and to raise with AA he'd have to think you're a tard with KK.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
My primary reason to donk the river would be so he can't check AK behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

my point wasn't that i wanted to bet so he couldn't check AK behind.

i think his 3betting range OTB is going to be more than TT+, AK+(if this is wrong please advise).

it's the combos that include Ahigh as well as these other pocket underpairs that were raising for a freeshowdown or that get scared/never intended to value bet on the river(AK, AQ, 66-TT). that makes a decent part of that range highly likely that it's checking behind. the best way to get a bet in versus that portion of the range is bet. combine that with the times he has an overpair and raises and it seems to me betting is still best. this isn't as much a b/3b versus c/r scenario as it is just getting at least one bet in versus a signficant portion of his range that's not firing on the end, but will pay a bet to showdown.

hyper,

you're EV calc doesn't take into consideration the times he folds. it also doesn't consider the times he caps or 3bets. a bit oversimplified to really draw a solid conclusion, but i certainly think it works well to put things into perspective.